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Serie A
Referee: K Bonacina
Lecce
T T S U U
0–1
Full-time
Udinese
T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Udinese
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
1,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 30%
24%
36%
Points per game
1,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
44%
56%
Both score Ø 48%
36%
60%
Average goals
2,4
2,8
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,6
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,9
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,32 xG 1,61
45% Possession 55%
10 Shots 12
1 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
11 Corners 8
2 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lecce 15. · Udinese 10.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Napoli 25 17 5 3 +22 +14.7 56
2 Inter 25 16 6 3 +34 +26.5 54
3 Atalanta 25 15 6 4 +28 +19.1 51
4 Juventus 25 11 13 1 +21 +11.6 46
5 Lazio 25 14 4 7 +13 +12.2 46
6 Fiorentina 25 12 6 7 +14 +5.8 42
7 Milan 24 11 8 5 +12 +15.4 41
8 Bologna 24 10 11 3 +9 +7.9 41
9 Roma 25 10 7 8 +7 +5.8 37
10 Udinese 25 9 6 10 -5 -10.9 33
11 Genoa 25 7 9 9 -9 -5.2 30
12 Torino 25 6 10 9 -4 -10.2 28
13 Como 25 6 7 12 -10 +1.5 25
14 Cagliari 25 6 7 12 -13 -7.5 25
15 Lecce 25 6 7 12 -23 -15.4 25
16 Verona 25 7 2 16 -28 -14.4 23
17 Empoli 25 4 9 12 -16 -12.6 21
18 Parma 25 4 8 13 -15 -14.5 20
19 Venezia 25 3 7 15 -19 -16.1 16
20 Monza 25 2 8 15 -18 -13.5 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lecce Udinese
29′
ℹ️ Sandi Lovrić
VAR: Penalty confirmed
31′
🟨 Lorenzo Lucca
32′
L. Lucca 0–1
36′
🔁 Iker Bravo
↦ L. Lucca
Half-time 0–1
J. Karlsson 🔁
↦ S. Pierotti
46′
M. Berisha 🔁
↦ H. Rafia
46′
Medon Berisha 🟨
65′
65′
🔁 M. Payero
↦ A. Sánchez
66′
🟨 Sandi Lovrić
67′
🟨 Martín Payero
A. Rebić 🔁
↦ B. Pierret
72′
77′
🔁 Oier Zarraga
↦ S. Lovrić
77′
🔁 A. Atta
↦ J. Ekkelenkamp
77′
🔁 K. Ehizibue
↦ T. Kristensen
K. N’Dri 🔁
↦ Tete Morente
82′
Danilo Veiga 🔁
↦ F. Guilbert
89′
Full-time 0–1

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,99
U
3,05
B ✓
2,61
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,30
U2,5 ✓
1,64
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

K Bonacina · 48 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
27,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.