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Champions League
Referee: I Kovacs
Barcelona
S S S S S
1–4
Full-time
Paris SG
S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
100%
67%
Points per game
3,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,5
3,7
Scored
2,0
2,5
Conceded
0,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 56%
67%
44%
Points per game
2,1
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
67%
56%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
2,1
1,7
Conceded
1,1
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,08 xG 2,47
33% Possession 67%
7 Shots 21
3 Shots on target 9
1 Blocked shots 6
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 9
1 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 12
5 Yellow cards 4
1 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

10. Apr -24 Paris SG – Barcelona 2–3

Match report

Barcelona Paris SG
1–0 Raphinha ⚽
Lamine Yamal
12′
Ronald Araújo 🟥
29′
Iñigo Martínez 🔁
↦ Lamine Yamal
34′
Iñigo Martínez 🟨
40′
40′
🟨 Kylian Mbappé
40′
⚽ O. Dembélé 1–1
B. Barcola
Half-time 1–1
46′
🟨 Fabián Ruiz
Robert Lewandowski 🟨
50′
54′
⚽ Vitinha 1–2
A. Hakimi
Ferran Torres 🔁
↦ Pedri
61′
61′
⚽ K. Mbappé 1–3
62′
🟨 Marquinhos
İlkay Gündoğan 🟨
64′
77′
🔁 Lee Kang-In
↦ B. Barcola
77′
🔁 Marco Asensio
↦ Fabián Ruiz
80′
🔁 M. Ugarte
↦ W. Zaïre-Emery
João Félix 🔁
↦ João Cancelo
82′
Fermín 🔁
↦ F. de Jong
82′
87′
🟨 Gianluigi Donnarumma
88′
🔁 R. Kolo Muani
↦ O. Dembélé
89′
⚽ K. Mbappé 1–4
Fermín López 🟨
97′
Raphinha 🟨
97′
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Barcelona

4-3-3
1 M. ter Stegen G
23 J. Koundé D
4 R. Araujo D
33 Pau Cubarsí D
2 João Cancelo D
8 Pedri M
22 İ. Gündoğan M
21 F. de Jong M
27 Lamine Yamal F
9 R. Lewandowski F
11 Raphinha F
Bench (12)
5 Iñigo Martínez
7 Ferran Torres
14 João Félix
32 Fermín
26 Ander Astralaga
30 Marc Casadó
13 Iñaki Peña
19 Vitor Roque
18 Oriol Romeu
39 Héctor Fort
38 Marc Guiu
17 Marcos Alonso

Coach: Xavi

Paris SG

4-3-3
99 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
21 L. Hernández D
25 Nuno Mendes D
33 W. Zaïre-Emery M
17 Vitinha M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
10 O. Dembélé F
7 K. Mbappé F
29 B. Barcola F
Bench (12)
19 Lee Kang-In
11 Marco Asensio
4 M. Ugarte
23 R. Kolo Muani
15 Danilo Pereira
80 Arnau Tenas
35 Beraldo
28 Carlos Soler
26 N. Mukiele
1 K. Navas
9 Gonçalo Ramos
37 M. Škriniar

Coach: Luis Enrique

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kovacs · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.