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Champions League
Referee: A Taylor
Paris SG
S S S S U
2–3
Full-time
Barcelona
U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,3
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
3,5
2,2
Scored
2,5
2,0
Conceded
1,0
0,2
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 57%
50%
63%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
50%
63%
Both score Ø 63%
63%
63%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,6
2,0
Conceded
1,1
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,28 xG 1,90
59% Possession 41%
18 Shots 15
6 Shots on target 7
8 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 5
4 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Paris SG Barcelona
34′
🟨 Sergi Roberto
37′
Raphinha 0–1
Half-time 0–1
B. Barcola 🔁
↦ Marco Asensio
46′
1–1 O. Dembélé
48′
2–1 Vitinha
Fabián Ruiz
50′
W. Zaïre-Emery 🔁
↦ Lee Kang-In
61′
61′
🔁 Pedri
↦ Sergi Roberto
61′
🔁 João Félix
↦ Lamine Yamal
62′
Raphinha 2–2
Pedri
Vitinha 🟨
65′
75′
🔁 A. Christensen
↦ F. de Jong
76′
🔁 Ferran Torres
↦ Raphinha
77′
A. Christensen 2–3
İ. Gündoğan
82′
🟨 Pau Cubarsí
Gonçalo Ramos 🔁
↦ Fabián Ruiz
85′
86′
🔁 Fermín
↦ İ. Gündoğan
88′
🟨 Andreas Christensen
Lucas Beraldo 🟨
89′
89′
🟨 Fermín López
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-3-3
99 G. Donnarumma G
5 Marquinhos D
21 L. Hernández D
35 Beraldo D
25 Nuno Mendes D
19 Lee Kang-In M
17 Vitinha M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
10 O. Dembélé F
11 Marco Asensio F
7 K. Mbappé F
Bench (12)
29 B. Barcola
33 W. Zaïre-Emery
9 Gonçalo Ramos
80 Arnau Tenas
15 Danilo Pereira
37 M. Škriniar
4 M. Ugarte
42 Y. Zague
23 R. Kolo Muani
41 S. Mayulu
1 K. Navas
28 Carlos Soler

Coach: Luis Enrique

Barcelona

4-3-3
1 M. ter Stegen G
23 J. Koundé D
4 R. Araujo D
33 Pau Cubarsí D
2 João Cancelo D
22 İ. Gündoğan M
20 Sergi Roberto M
21 F. de Jong M
27 Lamine Yamal F
9 R. Lewandowski F
11 Raphinha F
Bench (12)
8 Pedri
14 João Félix
15 A. Christensen
7 Ferran Torres
32 Fermín
17 Marcos Alonso
18 Oriol Romeu
13 Iñaki Peña
5 Iñigo Martínez
26 Ander Astralaga
19 Vitor Roque
39 Héctor Fort

Coach: Xavi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Taylor · 215 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.