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La Liga

Referee: Juan Luis Pulido Santana

Ath Bilbao

S T U S S

4–3

Full-time

Celta

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 29%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 46%

33%

58%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

4,60 xG 2,24

58% Possession 42%

21 Shots 13

12 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 5. · Celta 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	12	10	1	1	+14	+5.7	31
2	Real Madrid	12	9	2	1	+15	+11.1	29
3	Barcelona	12	8	3	1	+12	+14.0	27
4	Ath Madrid	11	8	1	2	+15	+9.5	25
5	Ath Bilbao	12	6	3	3	+7	+6.3	21
6	Betis	12	5	5	2	+1	-0.5	20
7	Sociedad	12	5	4	3	+5	-0.4	19
8	Valencia	12	5	3	4	+2	+1.7	18
9	Vallecano	12	4	6	2	-1	-1.9	18
10	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	-1	-3.0	17
11	Getafe	12	3	6	3	-2	-4.1	15
12	Osasuna	12	4	1	7	-6	-4.7	13
13	Villarreal	12	3	3	6	-4	-3.9	12
14	Alaves	12	3	3	6	-6	+1.3	12
15	Sevilla	11	2	5	4	+1	-4.1	11
16	Cadiz	12	2	4	6	-7	-7.3	10
17	Mallorca	12	1	6	5	-6	-4.2	9
18	Celta	12	1	4	7	-9	-1.0	7
19	Granada	12	1	3	8	-12	-10.3	6
20	Almeria	12	0	3	9	-18	-4.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+9	+6.7	15
2	Girona	6	5	0	1	+7	+2.6	15
3	Ath Madrid	5	5	0	0	+7	+5.7	15
4	Betis	6	4	2	0	+7	+5.0	14
5	Sociedad	7	4	2	1	+6	+0.2	14
6	Real Madrid	5	4	1	0	+8	+8.9	13
7	Valencia	6	4	0	2	+5	+4.8	12
8	Getafe	6	3	3	0	+3	+1.7	12
9	Ath Bilbao	6	3	2	1	+6	+5.7	11
10	Las Palmas	6	3	2	1	+2	-0.9	11
11	Alaves	6	3	1	2	-1	+3.8	10
12	Cadiz	6	2	3	1	+2	+2.8	9
13	Sevilla	6	2	2	2	+3	+0.0	8
14	Vallecano	5	1	3	1	-5	-1.5	6
15	Granada	6	1	2	3	-4	-4.1	5
16	Mallorca	5	0	4	1	-1	-2.2	4
17	Villarreal	7	1	1	5	-4	-2.5	4
18	Osasuna	6	1	1	4	-5	-0.7	4
19	Celta	7	0	3	4	-7	+0.6	3
20	Almeria	6	0	2	4	-6	+1.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	6	5	1	0	+7	+3.1	16
2	Real Madrid	7	5	1	1	+7	+2.1	16
3	Vallecano	7	3	3	1	+4	-0.4	12
4	Barcelona	6	3	3	0	+3	+7.3	12
5	Ath Madrid	6	3	1	2	+8	+3.9	10
6	Ath Bilbao	6	3	1	2	+1	+0.6	10
7	Osasuna	6	3	0	3	-1	-4.0	9
8	Villarreal	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.3	8
9	Valencia	6	1	3	2	-3	-3.0	6
10	Las Palmas	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.1	6
11	Betis	6	1	3	2	-6	-5.5	6
12	Sociedad	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.6	5
13	Mallorca	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.0	5
14	Celta	5	1	1	3	-2	-1.6	4
15	Sevilla	5	0	3	2	-2	-4.1	3
16	Getafe	6	0	3	3	-5	-5.8	3
17	Alaves	6	0	2	4	-5	-2.5	2
18	Granada	6	0	1	5	-8	-6.2	1
19	Cadiz	6	0	1	5	-9	-10.0	1
20	Almeria	6	0	1	5	-12	-5.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.