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DBU Pokalen

Referee: M Krogh

Aarhus

S S S U T

1–0

Full-time

Nordsjaelland

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aarhus Nordsjaelland

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — DBU Pokalen · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 70%

80%

60%

Points per game

2,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

60%

100%

Both score Ø 60%

40%

80%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

2,2

2,4

Conceded

0,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Aarhus 3. · Nordsjaelland 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fredericia	8	7	0	1	+17	21
2	Silkeborg	7	5	0	2	+11	15
3	Aarhus	5	4	0	1	+7	12
4	FC Helsingor	4	3	1	0	+8	10
5	Nordsjaelland	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	AB Copenhagen	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	FC Copenhagen	4	3	0	1	+9	9
8	Ishøj	4	3	0	1	+5	9
9	Brondby	4	3	0	1	+3	9
10	Kolding IF	3	2	1	0	+22	7
11	B 93	3	2	1	0	+21	7
12	Vejle	3	2	1	0	+8	7
13	Lyngby	5	2	1	2	+2	7
14	Midtjylland	3	2	0	1	+14	6
15	Aalborg	3	2	0	1	+13	6
16	FA 2000	3	2	0	1	+11	6
17	Aarhus Fremad	3	2	0	1	+11	6
18	Esbjerg	3	2	0	1	+7	6
19	Hvidovre IF	3	2	0	1	+6	6
20	Naestved	3	2	0	1	+6	6
21	Odense	3	2	0	1	+4	6
22	Hobro	3	2	0	1	+4	6
23	Viby	3	2	0	1	+3	6
24	HB Koge	3	2	0	1	+2	6
25	Vanløse	3	2	0	1	+2	6
26	Nykobing FC	3	2	0	1	+2	6
27	Thisted FC	3	2	0	1	+1	6
28	HIK	3	2	0	1	-1	6
29	Lyseng	3	2	0	1	-5	6
30	tst Fodbold	3	1	1	1	-6	4
31	Hillerød	2	1	0	1	+5	3
32	Middelfart	2	1	0	1	+4	3
33	Næsby	2	1	0	1	+3	3
34	Kolding B	2	1	0	1	+2	3
35	SfB-Oure	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Skjold Sæby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Ringsted	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Gørslev	2	1	0	1	+1	3
39	Viborg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	VSK Århus	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Sonderjyske	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Silkeborg KFUM	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	B 1908	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	AB Tårnby	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	VRI	2	1	0	1	-1	3
46	Tune	2	1	0	1	-1	3
47	Skjold Birkerød	2	1	0	1	-1	3
48	Skive	2	1	0	1	-1	3
49	Brønshøj	2	1	0	1	-2	3
50	Ringkøbing	2	1	0	1	-3	3
51	Taastrup	2	1	0	1	-4	3
52	Dalum	2	1	0	1	-5	3
53	Bagsværd	2	1	0	1	-5	3
54	Søften	2	1	0	1	-6	3
55	Aabenraa	2	1	0	1	-12	3
56	B 1909	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Vejgaard B	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Randers FC	2	0	1	1	-1	1
59	Fjordager	2	0	1	1	-8	1
60	Brabrand	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Glostrup	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Amager FF	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Gug	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Horsens	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Fremad Amager	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Vendsyssel FF	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Greve	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	LSF	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Tåsinge	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Nibe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Odder	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Frem	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Kjellerup	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Roskilde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	ASA Aarhus	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Otterup	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	OKS	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	NB Bornholm	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Tårnby FF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Jetsmark	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Allerød	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	B 1960	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Køge Union	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Holstebro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	KFUM Roskilde	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Bispebjerg	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Aarhus 1900	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Morud/Veflinge	1	0	0	1	-4	0
89	Dragør	1	0	0	1	-4	0
90	Frem Sakskøbing	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Varde	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Frederiksholm Sydhavnen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
93	Nørresundby	1	0	0	1	-5	0
94	Højslev IF	1	0	0	1	-5	0
95	KFUM Odense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
96	Vallensbæk	1	0	0	1	-6	0
97	BSF	1	0	0	1	-7	0
98	FC Nakskov	1	0	0	1	-7	0
99	KRFK	1	0	0	1	-7	0
100	Egen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
101	Bredballe	1	0	0	1	-8	0
102	LUIF	1	0	0	1	-16	0
103	Avrasya	1	0	0	1	-18	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fredericia	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Viby	3	2	0	1	+3	6
3	tst Fodbold	3	1	1	1	-6	4
4	Silkeborg	2	1	0	1	+4	3
5	Nordsjaelland	2	1	0	1	+2	3
6	Kolding B	2	1	0	1	+2	3
7	Aarhus	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Ringsted	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Gørslev	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Brondby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Silkeborg KFUM	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	B 1908	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Thisted FC	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Tune	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	FC Copenhagen	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	HIK	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Ringkøbing	2	1	0	1	-3	3
18	Taastrup	2	1	0	1	-4	3
19	Dalum	2	1	0	1	-5	3
20	Søften	2	1	0	1	-6	3
21	Lyseng	2	1	0	1	-7	3
22	B 93	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	FC Helsingor	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Kolding IF	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	B 1909	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	AB Copenhagen	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Esbjerg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	SfB-Oure	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Aalborg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Viborg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	FA 2000	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Amager FF	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Horsens	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Aarhus Fremad	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Greve	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	LSF	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Tåsinge	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Nibe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Sonderjyske	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Randers FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Lyngby	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Hobro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Nykobing FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Odder	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Frem	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	HB Koge	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	ASA Aarhus	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Otterup	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Vanløse	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Skive	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	NB Bornholm	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Tårnby FF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Jetsmark	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Hillerød	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Allerød	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Naestved	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Skjold Birkerød	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Køge Union	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	AB Tårnby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Skjold Sæby	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	KFUM Roskilde	1	0	0	1	-3	0
62	Aarhus 1900	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Hvidovre IF	1	0	0	1	-4	0
64	Morud/Veflinge	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	Ishøj	1	0	0	1	-4	0
66	Dragør	1	0	0	1	-4	0
67	Frederiksholm Sydhavnen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
68	Nørresundby	1	0	0	1	-5	0
69	Højslev IF	1	0	0	1	-5	0
70	Brønshøj	1	0	0	1	-5	0
71	VRI	1	0	0	1	-6	0
72	KFUM Odense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
73	Vallensbæk	1	0	0	1	-6	0
74	BSF	1	0	0	1	-7	0
75	FC Nakskov	1	0	0	1	-7	0
76	KRFK	1	0	0	1	-7	0
77	Bagsværd	1	0	0	1	-7	0
78	Fjordager	1	0	0	1	-8	0
79	Egen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
80	Bredballe	1	0	0	1	-8	0
81	Aabenraa	1	0	0	1	-13	0
82	LUIF	1	0	0	1	-16	0
83	Avrasya	1	0	0	1	-18	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fredericia	5	4	0	1	+12	12
2	Silkeborg	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Ishøj	3	3	0	0	+9	9
4	FC Helsingor	3	3	0	0	+8	9
5	Aarhus	4	3	0	1	+5	9
6	AB Copenhagen	4	3	0	1	+0	9
7	Vejle	3	2	1	0	+8	7
8	Lyngby	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	Nordsjaelland	3	2	1	0	+2	7
10	Kolding IF	2	2	0	0	+22	6
11	B 93	2	2	0	0	+21	6
12	Midtjylland	3	2	0	1	+14	6
13	Aalborg	2	2	0	0	+14	6
14	Aarhus Fremad	2	2	0	0	+12	6
15	FA 2000	2	2	0	0	+12	6
16	FC Copenhagen	2	2	0	0	+10	6
17	Hvidovre IF	2	2	0	0	+10	6
18	Esbjerg	2	2	0	0	+8	6
19	Naestved	2	2	0	0	+8	6
20	Hobro	2	2	0	0	+5	6
21	Odense	3	2	0	1	+4	6
22	HB Koge	2	2	0	0	+4	6
23	Vanløse	2	2	0	0	+4	6
24	Nykobing FC	2	2	0	0	+3	6
25	Brondby	3	2	0	1	+2	6
26	Hillerød	1	1	0	0	+7	3
27	VRI	1	1	0	0	+5	3
28	Middelfart	2	1	0	1	+4	3
29	Skjold Sæby	1	1	0	0	+4	3
30	Næsby	2	1	0	1	+3	3
31	Brønshøj	1	1	0	0	+3	3
32	Lyseng	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	SfB-Oure	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Thisted FC	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Bagsværd	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	AB Tårnby	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Viborg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Skjold Birkerød	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Sonderjyske	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	HIK	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Aabenraa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Skive	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	VSK Århus	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Randers FC	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Fjordager	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Vejgaard B	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Brabrand	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Glostrup	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Gug	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Fremad Amager	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Vendsyssel FF	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Kjellerup	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Roskilde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	OKS	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	B 1960	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Holstebro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
57	Bispebjerg	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Frem Sakskøbing	1	0	0	1	-4	0
59	Varde	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.