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League Cup

Referee: J Bell

Exeter City

U S T S U

1–0

Full-time

Luton

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Exeter City Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 2/1 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

2,5

5,0

Scored

1,5

3,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

33% Possession 67%

10 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 8

3 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 8

6 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Exeter City 16. · Luton 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Reading	2	1	1	0	+4	4
7	Cardiff	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Ipswich	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Portsmouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Mansfield Town	2	1	1	0	+2	4
12	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+2	4
13	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Sutton Utd	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Port Vale	2	1	1	0	+1	4
16	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+5	3
18	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
19	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
20	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Gillingham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
22	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
29	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
30	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
33	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
34	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
35	Salford City	2	0	2	0	+0	2
36	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
37	Peterborough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
38	Bradford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
39	Stevenage	2	0	2	0	+0	2
40	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
41	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
42	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-2	1
58	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-5	1
59	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
84	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Port Vale	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
7	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
8	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
19	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
21	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+8	3
6	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Sutton Utd	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
18	Bradford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
52	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
53	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.