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Ligue 1

Referee: E Wattellier

Paris SG

S T S S S

3–1

Full-time

Toulouse

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 55%

73%

37%

Points per game

2,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

58%

44%

Both score Ø 40%

38%

41%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

2,2

1,4

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,95 xG 0,16

72% Possession 28%

17 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

2 Offside 4

4 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Toulouse 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	26	19	3	4	+36	+33.2	60
2	Lens	27	19	2	6	+30	+19.9	59
3	Marseille	27	15	4	8	+19	+10.5	49
4	Lyon	27	14	5	8	+12	+6.4	47
5	Lille	27	14	5	8	+8	+10.6	47
6	Monaco	27	14	4	9	+9	+8.5	46
7	Rennes	27	12	8	7	+6	-0.8	44
8	Strasbourg	27	11	7	9	+10	+10.0	40
9	Toulouse	27	10	7	10	+6	+4.8	37
10	Lorient	27	9	10	8	-4	-2.5	37
11	Brest	27	10	6	11	-5	-0.8	36
12	Angers	27	9	5	13	-13	-18.4	32
13	Paris FC	27	7	10	10	-11	-13.0	31
14	Le Havre	27	6	9	12	-13	-10.7	27
15	Nice	27	7	6	14	-20	-13.3	27
16	Auxerre	27	5	7	15	-14	-7.8	22
17	Nantes	26	4	5	17	-21	-13.5	17
18	Metz	27	3	5	19	-35	-23.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	14	12	0	2	+22	+16.9	36
2	Paris SG	12	10	1	1	+24	+16.5	31
3	Marseille	14	9	3	2	+17	+9.3	30
4	Lyon	13	9	1	3	+11	+8.0	28
5	Monaco	14	9	1	4	+10	+8.9	28
6	Lorient	13	7	5	1	+7	+4.7	26
7	Rennes	14	7	4	3	+10	+7.2	25
8	Strasbourg	13	7	3	3	+12	+12.6	24
9	Brest	13	7	3	3	+7	+8.8	24
10	Lille	13	7	3	3	+6	+8.4	24
11	Le Havre	14	5	6	3	+3	+2.0	21
12	Toulouse	14	5	5	4	+4	+6.6	20
13	Angers	13	6	2	5	+1	-4.4	20
14	Nice	14	4	5	5	-8	-4.3	17
15	Paris FC	13	4	4	5	-6	-3.9	16
16	Auxerre	14	4	3	7	-2	+1.5	15
17	Metz	13	2	3	8	-10	-3.1	9
18	Nantes	14	2	2	10	-12	-7.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	9	2	3	+12	+16.7	29
2	Lens	13	7	2	4	+8	+2.9	23
3	Lille	14	7	2	5	+2	+2.1	23
4	Marseille	13	6	1	6	+2	+1.2	19
5	Lyon	14	5	4	5	+1	-1.6	19
6	Rennes	13	5	4	4	-4	-8.0	19
7	Monaco	13	5	3	5	-1	-0.4	18
8	Toulouse	13	5	2	6	+2	-1.8	17
9	Strasbourg	14	4	4	6	-2	-2.6	16
10	Paris FC	14	3	6	5	-5	-9.1	15
11	Brest	14	3	3	8	-12	-9.7	12
12	Angers	14	3	3	8	-14	-14.0	12
13	Lorient	14	2	5	7	-11	-7.2	11
14	Nice	13	3	1	9	-12	-8.9	10
15	Nantes	12	2	3	7	-9	-6.2	9
16	Auxerre	13	1	4	8	-12	-9.4	7
17	Le Havre	13	1	3	9	-16	-12.7	6
18	Metz	14	1	2	11	-25	-19.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.