Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Hollands & Blair
Ashford United
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Dereham Town
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 |
Woodford Town
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 |
Skelmersdale United
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 |
Leicester Road
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 |
Studley
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 |
Stansted
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Newmarket Town
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 |
Whickham
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 |
Moneyfields
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 |
Bishop's Cleeve
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 11 |
Thornbury Town
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 12 |
Edgware Town
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 13 |
Waltham Abbey
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 14 |
Sittingbourne
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 15 |
Jersey Bulls
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 16 |
Bugbrooke St Michaels
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 |
Coventry United
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 |
Stotfold
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 |
Thetford Town
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 |
Carlisle City
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 |
Westbury United
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 |
Northwich Victoria
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 |
Walsham Le Willows
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 24 |
Hertford Town
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.