Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Congleton Town
Wythenshawe Town
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Dereham Town
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 |
Woodford Town
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 |
Skelmersdale United
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 |
Leicester Road
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 |
Studley
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 |
Stansted
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Newmarket Town
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 |
Whickham
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 |
Moneyfields
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 |
Bishop's Cleeve
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 11 |
Thornbury Town
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 12 |
Edgware Town
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 13 |
Waltham Abbey
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 14 |
Sittingbourne
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 15 |
Jersey Bulls
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 16 |
Bugbrooke St Michaels
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 |
Coventry United
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 |
Stotfold
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 |
Thetford Town
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 |
Carlisle City
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 |
Westbury United
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 |
Northwich Victoria
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 |
Walsham Le Willows
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 24 |
Hertford Town
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
AFC Fylde
Congleton Town
Congleton Town
AFC Fylde
Congleton Town
Newcastle Town
Newcastle Town
Congleton Town
Nantwich Town
Congleton Town
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.