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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Derby

T U S T S

0–1

Full-time

Leeds

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 46%

30%

61%

Points per game

1,2

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

48%

39%

Both score Ø 46%

61%

30%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,9

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,18 xG 2,67

39% Possession 61%

4 Shots 17

1 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 9

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 15. · Leeds 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	23	14	6	3	+28	+24.7	48
2	Burnley	23	13	8	2	+21	+7.2	47
3	Sheffield United	22	13	6	3	+17	+9.5	45
4	Sunderland	22	12	7	3	+16	+5.4	43
5	Blackburn	23	11	5	7	+6	+0.6	38
6	Watford	23	11	4	8	+2	-3.5	37
7	Middlesbrough	23	10	6	7	+10	+13.1	36
8	West Brom	24	8	12	4	+9	+4.0	36
9	Swansea	24	9	6	9	+4	+2.3	33
10	Bristol City	23	8	9	6	+3	+4.2	33
11	Sheffield Weds	24	9	6	9	-4	-4.7	33
12	Norwich	24	7	9	8	+4	+7.0	30
13	Millwall	23	7	8	8	+2	+6.3	29
14	Preston	24	6	11	7	-4	-2.2	29
15	Derby	23	7	6	10	+0	-1.0	27
16	Coventry	23	7	6	10	-2	+13.5	27
17	QPR	24	5	11	8	-8	-7.3	26
18	Stoke	24	6	7	11	-8	-13.3	25
19	Luton	24	7	4	13	-15	-4.2	25
20	Oxford	23	6	6	11	-13	-12.6	24
21	Hull	24	5	7	12	-10	-3.4	22
22	Cardiff	23	5	6	12	-15	-9.5	21
23	Portsmouth	22	4	8	10	-14	-12.3	20
24	Plymouth	23	4	6	13	-29	-23.8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	12	10	1	1	+23	+16.9	31
2	Watford	12	9	2	1	+10	+1.9	29
3	Sheffield United	11	8	2	1	+11	+9.9	26
4	Sunderland	10	7	3	0	+12	+5.8	24
5	Burnley	11	6	5	0	+11	+5.0	23
6	Blackburn	12	7	2	3	+7	+3.9	23
7	Oxford	13	6	4	3	+2	-3.2	22
8	Middlesbrough	12	6	3	3	+5	+7.7	21
9	Preston	13	5	6	2	+4	+2.9	21
10	Luton	12	6	3	3	+3	+3.2	21
11	Norwich	12	5	5	2	+12	+8.9	20
12	Derby	11	6	2	3	+9	+5.9	20
13	Bristol City	11	5	5	1	+9	+6.4	20
14	Millwall	12	6	2	4	+5	+7.0	20
15	Swansea	12	5	4	3	+6	+9.1	19
16	Coventry	12	5	3	4	+6	+12.1	18
17	West Brom	11	4	6	1	+5	+3.9	18
18	Stoke	13	4	5	4	+1	-4.5	17
19	Plymouth	10	4	4	2	+3	-1.4	16
20	Sheffield Weds	12	4	4	4	+0	+0.9	16
21	QPR	12	3	5	4	-2	+3.4	14
22	Portsmouth	10	3	4	3	+2	+0.8	13
23	Cardiff	11	4	0	7	-5	-3.0	12
24	Hull	12	2	5	5	-3	+1.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	12	7	3	2	+10	+2.2	24
2	Sheffield United	11	5	4	2	+6	-0.4	19
3	Sunderland	12	5	4	3	+4	-0.4	19
4	West Brom	13	4	6	3	+4	+0.1	18
5	Leeds	11	4	5	2	+5	+7.7	17
6	Sheffield Weds	12	5	2	5	-4	-5.6	17
7	Middlesbrough	11	4	3	4	+5	+5.4	15
8	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	-1	-3.3	15
9	Swansea	12	4	2	6	-2	-6.8	14
10	Bristol City	12	3	4	5	-6	-2.2	13
11	QPR	12	2	6	4	-6	-10.7	12
12	Hull	12	3	2	7	-7	-5.2	11
13	Norwich	12	2	4	6	-8	-1.9	10
14	Millwall	11	1	6	4	-3	-0.7	9
15	Coventry	11	2	3	6	-8	+1.3	9
16	Cardiff	12	1	6	5	-10	-6.5	9
17	Watford	11	2	2	7	-8	-5.4	8
18	Preston	11	1	5	5	-8	-5.1	8
19	Stoke	11	2	2	7	-9	-8.7	8
20	Derby	12	1	4	7	-9	-6.9	7
21	Portsmouth	12	1	4	7	-16	-13.1	7
22	Luton	12	1	1	10	-18	-7.4	4
23	Oxford	10	0	2	8	-15	-9.5	2
24	Plymouth	13	0	2	11	-32	-22.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.