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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Derby

U T T T U

4–0

Full-time

Portsmouth

T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Portsmouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 20/18 matches

Win Ø 21%

25%

17%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

40%

61%

Both score Ø 61%

60%

61%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,14 xG 0,60

50% Possession 50%

17 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 16. · Portsmouth 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	20	12	5	3	+22	+20.4	41
2	Burnley	20	10	8	2	+17	+7.0	38
3	Sheffield United	18	11	5	2	+15	+8.3	38
4	Sunderland	18	10	6	2	+15	+4.9	36
5	Blackburn	19	10	4	5	+6	-0.1	34
6	West Brom	20	7	11	2	+9	+2.6	32
7	Middlesbrough	20	9	4	7	+9	+15.5	31
8	Watford	19	9	4	6	+2	-3.3	31
9	Swansea	20	7	6	7	+2	+0.0	27
10	Norwich	20	6	8	6	+5	+3.1	26
11	Bristol City	19	6	8	5	+1	+1.1	26
12	Sheffield Weds	20	7	5	8	-6	-3.1	26
13	Millwall	19	6	7	6	+3	+6.7	25
14	Preston	20	4	10	6	-6	-0.8	22
15	Luton	20	6	4	10	-12	-2.3	22
16	Derby	20	5	6	9	-4	-0.6	21
17	Stoke	20	5	6	9	-5	-11.8	21
18	QPR	20	4	9	7	-6	-4.2	21
19	Coventry	19	5	5	9	-4	+10.0	20
20	Oxford	19	4	6	9	-10	-11.8	18
21	Portsmouth	18	3	8	7	-9	-7.9	17
22	Cardiff	19	4	5	10	-13	-9.0	17
23	Plymouth	19	4	5	10	-21	-22.9	17
24	Hull	20	3	7	10	-10	-1.9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	11	9	1	1	+19	+14.9	28
2	Watford	9	7	2	0	+9	+1.4	23
3	Sheffield United	8	7	1	0	+11	+9.3	22
4	Sunderland	9	6	3	0	+11	+5.8	21
5	Burnley	10	5	5	0	+10	+4.2	20
6	Blackburn	9	6	1	2	+6	+2.5	19
7	Luton	11	5	3	3	+2	+2.7	18
8	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	+4	+8.4	17
9	Millwall	11	5	2	4	+4	+6.3	17
10	Norwich	9	4	4	1	+12	+5.0	16
11	Oxford	10	4	4	2	+1	-4.4	16
12	Plymouth	9	4	3	2	+3	-3.0	15
13	West Brom	10	3	6	1	+3	+2.5	15
14	Derby	9	4	2	3	+4	+5.9	14
15	Preston	10	3	5	2	+1	+2.6	14
16	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+5	+2.0	13
17	Swansea	9	3	4	2	+3	+6.2	13
18	Stoke	10	3	4	3	+2	-2.5	13
19	Sheffield Weds	11	3	4	4	-2	+1.5	13
20	Cardiff	10	4	0	6	-3	-2.5	12
21	Coventry	9	3	2	4	+1	+8.3	11
22	QPR	11	2	5	4	-3	+1.7	11
23	Portsmouth	9	2	4	3	-1	+0.5	10
24	Hull	11	1	5	5	-4	+1.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	10	5	3	2	+7	+2.8	18
2	West Brom	10	4	5	1	+6	+0.1	17
3	Sheffield United	10	4	4	2	+4	-1.0	16
4	Sunderland	9	4	3	2	+4	-0.9	15
5	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	+0	-2.6	15
6	Middlesbrough	10	4	2	4	+5	+7.1	14
7	Swansea	11	4	2	5	-1	-6.2	14
8	Leeds	9	3	4	2	+3	+5.5	13
9	Bristol City	11	3	4	4	-4	-0.8	13
10	Sheffield Weds	9	4	1	4	-4	-4.6	13
11	QPR	9	2	4	3	-3	-5.9	10
12	Norwich	11	2	4	5	-7	-1.9	10
13	Coventry	10	2	3	5	-5	+1.7	9
14	Millwall	8	1	5	2	-1	+0.4	8
15	Hull	9	2	2	5	-6	-3.1	8
16	Watford	10	2	2	6	-7	-4.7	8
17	Preston	10	1	5	4	-7	-3.4	8
18	Stoke	10	2	2	6	-7	-9.3	8
19	Portsmouth	9	1	4	4	-8	-8.4	7
20	Derby	11	1	4	6	-8	-6.4	7
21	Cardiff	9	0	5	4	-10	-6.5	5
22	Luton	9	1	1	7	-14	-5.0	4
23	Oxford	9	0	2	7	-11	-7.4	2
24	Plymouth	10	0	2	8	-24	-19.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.