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LaLiga2

Referee: J A Gonzalez Esteban

Almeria

U T T S U

3–2

Full-time

Castellon

U U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Castellon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — LaLiga2 · 43/43 matches

Win Ø 49%

51%

47%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

70%

49%

Both score Ø 68%

72%

63%

Average goals

3,4

2,9

Scored

1,9

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,63 xG 1,15

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almeria 4. · Castellon 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Santander	42	25	7	10	+29	+0.6	82
2	La Coruna	42	22	11	9	+21	+2.1	77
3	Malaga	43	22	10	11	+24	+9.2	76
4	Almeria	43	22	9	12	+18	+3.1	75
5	Castellon	43	20	13	10	+19	+9.0	73
6	Las Palmas	43	20	13	10	+16	+0.7	73
7	Burgos	42	20	12	10	+15	+5.3	72
8	Eibar	42	19	10	13	+12	+6.0	67
9	Sp Gijon	42	18	7	17	+6	+1.2	61
10	Cordoba	42	17	10	15	-4	+8.0	61
11	Ceuta	42	17	10	15	-12	-15.2	61
12	Albacete	42	16	11	15	+1	+1.9	59
13	Andorra	42	16	10	16	+8	+2.9	58
14	Granada	42	12	12	18	-6	-1.2	48
15	Sociedad B	42	12	11	19	-9	-8.3	47
16	Leganes	42	11	13	18	-8	+2.2	46
17	Valladolid	42	12	10	20	-13	+0.1	46
18	Cadiz	42	11	10	21	-20	-8.5	43
19	Mirandes	42	10	10	22	-22	-4.7	40
20	Huesca	42	9	11	22	-22	-1.4	38
21	Cultural Leonesa	42	9	10	23	-29	-12.7	37
22	Zaragoza	42	8	12	22	-24	-0.1	36

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Santander	21	15	2	4	+26	+5.5	47
2	Almeria	21	15	2	4	+22	+9.2	47
3	Eibar	21	14	4	3	+20	+10.4	46
4	Castellon	22	13	5	4	+17	+3.3	44
5	Malaga	21	12	7	2	+18	+5.3	43
6	Las Palmas	22	12	6	4	+18	+3.2	42
7	Ceuta	21	12	4	5	+5	-0.4	40
8	Sp Gijon	21	11	6	4	+13	+3.0	39
9	Burgos	21	10	8	3	+13	+6.6	38
10	La Coruna	21	11	5	5	+9	+2.3	38
11	Cordoba	21	9	5	7	+0	+5.1	32
12	Albacete	21	9	4	8	-2	-0.2	31
13	Andorra	21	8	6	7	+6	+4.6	30
14	Sociedad B	21	7	8	6	+2	-0.2	29
15	Valladolid	21	8	5	8	+2	+4.0	29
16	Huesca	21	7	7	7	-1	+1.4	28
17	Leganes	21	7	6	8	+0	+6.6	27
18	Granada	21	6	8	7	+3	+4.3	26
19	Cadiz	21	7	2	12	-7	-1.9	23
20	Mirandes	21	6	5	10	-9	-1.6	23
21	Zaragoza	21	4	6	11	-13	+3.1	18
22	Cultural Leonesa	21	4	5	12	-17	+0.7	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	La Coruna	21	11	6	4	+12	-0.3	39
2	Santander	21	10	5	6	+3	-4.8	35
3	Burgos	21	10	4	7	+2	-1.3	34
4	Malaga	22	10	3	9	+6	+3.8	33
5	Las Palmas	21	8	7	6	-2	-2.5	31
6	Castellon	21	7	8	6	+2	+5.7	29
7	Cordoba	21	8	5	8	-4	+2.8	29
8	Albacete	21	7	7	7	+3	+2.1	28
9	Andorra	21	8	4	9	+2	-1.7	28
10	Almeria	22	7	7	8	-4	-6.1	28
11	Sp Gijon	21	7	1	13	-7	-1.8	22
12	Granada	21	6	4	11	-9	-5.5	22
13	Eibar	21	5	6	10	-8	-4.4	21
14	Ceuta	21	5	6	10	-17	-14.9	21
15	Cultural Leonesa	21	5	5	11	-12	-13.4	20
16	Cadiz	21	4	8	9	-13	-6.6	20
17	Leganes	21	4	7	10	-8	-4.4	19
18	Sociedad B	21	5	3	13	-11	-8.2	18
19	Zaragoza	21	4	6	11	-11	-3.2	18
20	Mirandes	21	4	5	12	-13	-3.2	17
21	Valladolid	21	4	5	12	-15	-4.0	17
22	Huesca	21	2	4	15	-21	-2.8	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.