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Championship

Referee: J Bell

Luton

U T S S T

2–2

Full-time

Oxford

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Oxford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

43%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,24 xG 1,73

40% Possession 60%

12 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 19. · Oxford 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	7	5	1	1	+7	+5.3	16
2	Blackburn	7	4	3	0	+8	+1.5	15
3	Sunderland	7	5	0	2	+8	+3.2	15
4	Sheffield United	7	4	3	0	+6	+3.4	15
5	Burnley	7	4	2	1	+9	+1.0	14
6	Leeds	7	4	2	1	+8	+8.7	14
7	Watford	7	4	1	2	+2	-1.2	13
8	Swansea	7	3	2	2	+3	-4.1	11
9	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+3	+8.0	11
10	Norwich	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.6	11
11	Oxford	7	3	1	3	+2	-2.7	10
12	Hull	7	2	3	2	+1	+0.9	9
13	Derby	7	3	0	4	+0	-1.8	9
14	Bristol City	7	2	3	2	-4	+0.7	9
15	Millwall	7	2	2	3	+2	+6.0	8
16	Plymouth	7	2	2	3	-3	-8.6	8
17	QPR	7	1	4	2	-3	-2.4	7
18	Sheffield Weds	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.8	7
19	Luton	7	2	1	4	-5	+2.5	7
20	Stoke	7	2	0	5	-7	-3.1	6
21	Coventry	7	1	2	4	-5	+2.6	5
22	Preston	7	1	2	4	-8	-7.5	5
23	Portsmouth	7	0	4	3	-6	-7.2	4
24	Cardiff	7	0	1	6	-15	-6.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Blackburn	4	4	0	0	+8	+2.8	12
2	Watford	4	3	1	0	+5	+2.2	10
3	Oxford	4	3	1	0	+5	-0.2	10
4	Sunderland	3	3	0	0	+6	+1.8	9
5	Derby	4	3	0	1	+4	+0.6	9
6	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+4	+1.2	8
7	Middlesbrough	4	2	2	0	+3	+7.1	8
8	Burnley	3	2	1	0	+6	+0.4	7
9	Leeds	4	2	1	1	+4	+5.2	7
10	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.3	7
11	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.1	7
12	Plymouth	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.6	7
13	Sheffield United	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.5	7
14	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.5	7
15	Millwall	4	2	0	2	+3	+5.5	6
16	Norwich	3	1	2	0	+3	+2.4	5
17	Hull	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.2	5
18	Preston	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.2	4
19	Coventry	3	1	0	2	-1	+3.5	3
20	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.1	3
21	Luton	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.8	3
22	QPR	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.4	2
23	Portsmouth	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.3	2
24	Cardiff	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	4	3	0	1	+5	+1.8	9
2	Sheffield United	4	2	2	0	+4	-0.1	8
3	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	+3.4	7
4	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.6	7
5	Sunderland	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.4	6
6	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.2	6
7	QPR	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.8	5
8	Hull	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
9	Luton	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.7	4
10	Blackburn	3	0	3	0	+0	-1.3	3
11	Middlesbrough	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.9	3
12	Swansea	3	1	0	2	-1	-5.2	3
13	Watford	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.4	3
14	Stoke	4	1	0	3	-5	-3.0	3
15	Portsmouth	3	0	2	1	-1	-4.0	2
16	Millwall	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.5	2
17	Coventry	4	0	2	2	-4	-0.9	2
18	Bristol City	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.5	2
19	Plymouth	3	0	1	2	-5	-8.0	1
20	Preston	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.3	1
21	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-9	-2.4	1
22	Oxford	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.5	0
23	Derby	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.4	0
24	Sheffield Weds	3	0	0	3	-8	-5.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.