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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Liverpool

S U S T S

2–1

Full-time

Leicester

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 39%

47%

31%

Points per game

1,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

67%

63%

Both score Ø 56%

67%

44%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,1

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

57% Possession 43%

21 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 5

8 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 6. · Leicester 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	13	1	1	+24	40
2	Man City	15	11	2	2	+28	35
3	Newcastle	16	9	6	1	+21	33
4	Tottenham	16	9	3	4	+10	30
5	Man United	15	9	2	4	+3	29
6	Liverpool	15	7	4	4	+13	25
7	Brighton	15	7	3	5	+6	24
8	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+2	24
9	Brentford	17	5	8	4	+0	23
10	Fulham	16	6	4	6	+1	22
11	Crystal Palace	15	5	4	6	-6	19
12	Aston Villa	16	5	3	8	-8	18
13	Leicester	16	5	2	9	-3	17
14	Bournemouth	16	4	4	8	-16	16
15	Leeds	15	4	3	8	-6	15
16	Everton	16	3	5	8	-7	14
17	West Ham	17	4	2	11	-9	14
18	Wolves	16	3	4	9	-15	13
19	Nott'm Forest	16	3	4	9	-22	13
20	Southampton	16	3	3	10	-16	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	0	1	+21	21
2	Arsenal	7	7	0	0	+14	21
3	Newcastle	8	5	3	0	+12	18
4	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+10	18
5	Liverpool	8	5	2	1	+13	17
6	Man United	7	5	1	1	+8	16
7	Chelsea	7	4	2	1	+6	14
8	Brentford	8	3	4	1	+6	13
9	Aston Villa	8	4	1	3	+3	13
10	Crystal Palace	8	4	1	3	-1	13
11	Fulham	8	3	3	2	+1	12
12	Brighton	7	3	2	2	+5	11
13	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+1	11
14	Bournemouth	8	3	2	3	+1	11
15	Nott'm Forest	8	3	2	3	-1	11
16	West Ham	9	3	1	5	-3	10
17	Leicester	8	2	2	4	+0	8
18	Everton	8	2	2	4	-1	8
19	Wolves	8	2	2	4	-8	8
20	Southampton	8	1	3	4	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	8	6	1	1	+10	19
2	Newcastle	8	4	3	1	+9	15
3	Man City	7	4	2	1	+7	14
4	Brighton	8	4	1	3	+1	13
5	Man United	8	4	1	3	-5	13
6	Tottenham	8	3	3	2	+0	12
7	Fulham	8	3	1	4	+0	10
8	Chelsea	8	3	1	4	-4	10
9	Brentford	9	2	4	3	-6	10
10	Leicester	8	3	0	5	-3	9
11	Liverpool	7	2	2	3	+0	8
12	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-5	6
13	Everton	8	1	3	4	-6	6
14	Southampton	8	2	0	6	-10	6
15	Wolves	8	1	2	5	-7	5
16	Aston Villa	8	1	2	5	-11	5
17	Bournemouth	8	1	2	5	-17	5
18	West Ham	8	1	1	6	-6	4
19	Leeds	7	1	1	5	-7	4
20	Nott'm Forest	8	0	2	6	-21	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.