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Championship

Referee: K Stroud

Cardiff

S T T T S

1–2

Full-time

Watford

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Championship · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 38%

35%

41%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

29%

53%

Both score Ø 41%

29%

53%

Average goals

1,9

2,6

Scored

0,8

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 11

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 16. · Watford 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	18	9	8	1	+16	35
2	Blackburn	19	11	0	8	+4	33
3	Sheffield United	18	9	5	4	+13	32
4	QPR	17	9	3	5	+6	30
5	Norwich	18	8	4	6	+6	28
6	Swansea	18	8	4	6	-1	28
7	Preston	19	7	7	5	-1	28
8	Watford	17	7	5	5	+4	26
9	Millwall	17	8	2	7	+2	26
10	Reading	18	8	2	8	-5	26
11	Luton	17	6	7	4	+2	25
12	Birmingham	17	6	5	6	+3	23
13	Rotherham	17	5	7	5	+0	22
14	Bristol City	19	6	4	9	-2	22
15	Blackpool	18	6	4	8	-4	22
16	Cardiff	17	6	3	8	-6	21
17	Sunderland	16	5	5	6	+1	20
18	Middlesbrough	17	5	5	7	+0	20
19	Hull	18	6	2	10	-14	20
20	Stoke	17	5	4	8	-5	19
21	Wigan	17	5	4	8	-8	19
22	West Brom	18	3	8	7	-3	17
23	Coventry	15	4	5	6	-3	17
24	Huddersfield	16	4	3	9	-5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	9	7	0	2	+9	21
2	Millwall	9	7	0	2	+9	21
3	Burnley	9	5	4	0	+9	19
4	Reading	9	6	1	2	+5	19
5	Norwich	9	5	2	2	+7	17
6	QPR	8	5	2	1	+7	17
7	Watford	8	5	1	2	+6	16
8	Swansea	9	5	1	3	+2	16
9	Sheffield United	8	4	3	1	+9	15
10	Rotherham	9	4	3	2	+6	15
11	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	+3	14
12	Cardiff	8	4	2	2	+2	14
13	Huddersfield	9	4	1	4	+2	13
14	Middlesbrough	9	3	4	2	+1	13
15	Preston	10	3	4	3	-2	13
16	Birmingham	8	3	3	2	+4	12
17	Hull	10	4	0	6	-8	12
18	Luton	9	2	5	2	+2	11
19	Sunderland	8	2	4	2	+1	10
20	Blackpool	8	3	1	4	+0	10
21	West Brom	10	2	4	4	-2	10
22	Stoke	8	2	2	4	-4	8
23	Coventry	6	2	1	3	-1	7
24	Wigan	9	1	3	5	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	10	5	2	3	+4	17
2	Burnley	9	4	4	1	+7	16
3	Preston	9	4	3	2	+1	15
4	Luton	8	4	2	2	+0	14
5	Wigan	8	4	1	3	+2	13
6	QPR	9	4	1	4	-1	13
7	Swansea	9	3	3	3	-3	12
8	Blackpool	10	3	3	4	-4	12
9	Blackburn	10	4	0	6	-5	12
10	Stoke	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Norwich	9	3	2	4	-1	11
12	Birmingham	9	3	2	4	-1	11
13	Sunderland	8	3	1	4	+0	10
14	Coventry	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Watford	9	2	4	3	-2	10
16	Bristol City	9	2	2	5	-5	8
17	Hull	8	2	2	4	-6	8
18	Middlesbrough	8	2	1	5	-1	7
19	West Brom	8	1	4	3	-1	7
20	Rotherham	8	1	4	3	-6	7
21	Cardiff	9	2	1	6	-8	7
22	Reading	9	2	1	6	-10	7
23	Millwall	8	1	2	5	-7	5
24	Huddersfield	7	0	2	5	-7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.