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Ligue 1

Referee: Jeremy Stinat

Metz

T S S S T

0–1

Full-time

Rennes

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Rennes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,8

3,7

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 31%

23%

38%

Points per game

0,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

62%

69%

Both score Ø 58%

46%

69%

Average goals

3,4

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

2,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,02 xG 0,78

52% Possession 48%

16 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 17. · Rennes 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	9	3	1	+16	+11.7	30
2	Marseille	13	9	1	3	+21	+12.1	28
3	Lens	13	9	1	3	+11	+4.5	28
4	Lille	13	7	2	4	+10	+9.5	23
5	Strasbourg	13	7	1	5	+7	+7.1	22
6	Rennes	13	5	6	2	+5	-0.2	21
7	Lyon	13	6	3	4	+3	+5.8	21
8	Monaco	13	6	2	5	+0	+4.9	20
9	Nice	13	5	2	6	-5	-9.9	17
10	Toulouse	13	4	4	5	+1	+1.9	16
11	Angers	13	4	4	5	-4	-12.1	16
12	Paris FC	13	4	2	7	-5	-3.8	14
13	Le Havre	13	3	5	5	-7	-1.7	14
14	Brest	13	3	4	6	-6	+0.4	13
15	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-7	-11.0	11
16	Lorient	13	2	5	6	-12	-2.8	11
17	Metz	13	3	2	8	-16	-11.0	11
18	Auxerre	13	2	2	9	-12	-5.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	7	6	0	1	+10	+8.5	18
2	Marseille	6	5	1	0	+15	+11.0	16
3	Lille	7	5	1	1	+9	+9.0	16
4	Paris SG	6	5	1	0	+9	+7.2	16
5	Strasbourg	6	5	0	1	+11	+10.2	15
6	Rennes	7	4	2	1	+8	+5.0	14
7	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+3	+6.5	13
8	Nice	7	4	1	2	+1	-3.0	13
9	Lyon	6	4	0	2	+4	+5.5	12
10	Angers	6	3	2	1	+3	-2.5	11
11	Toulouse	7	2	3	2	+2	+4.3	9
12	Le Havre	6	2	3	1	+2	+5.8	9
13	Lorient	6	2	3	1	+0	+0.4	9
14	Brest	7	2	3	2	+0	+5.4	9
15	Metz	6	2	2	2	-1	-0.5	8
16	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	+0	+1.5	7
17	Auxerre	7	2	1	4	-2	-0.1	7
18	Nantes	7	1	2	4	-6	-5.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	4	2	1	+7	+4.5	14
2	Marseille	7	4	0	3	+6	+1.1	12
3	Lens	6	3	1	2	+1	-3.9	10
4	Lyon	7	2	3	2	-1	+0.2	9
5	Lille	6	2	1	3	+1	+0.5	7
6	Toulouse	6	2	1	3	-1	-2.4	7
7	Monaco	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.5	7
8	Rennes	6	1	4	1	-3	-5.3	7
9	Strasbourg	7	2	1	4	-4	-3.1	7
10	Paris FC	7	2	1	4	-5	-5.3	7
11	Nantes	6	1	3	2	-1	-5.4	6
12	Angers	7	1	2	4	-7	-9.6	5
13	Le Havre	7	1	2	4	-9	-7.5	5
14	Nice	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.9	4
15	Brest	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.9	4
16	Metz	7	1	0	6	-15	-10.5	3
17	Lorient	7	0	2	5	-12	-3.2	2
18	Auxerre	6	0	1	5	-10	-5.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.