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2. Bundesliga
Referee: F Lechner
FC Koln
T U U S T
1–2
Full-time
Paderborn
U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Koln Paderborn
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
4,5
3,2
Scored
2,2
1,7
Conceded
2,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,2
This season — 2. Bundesliga · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 39%
33%
44%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
89%
78%
Both score Ø 73%
78%
67%
Average goals
4,3
3,1
Scored
2,3
1,8
Conceded
2,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%
12 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 4
7 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 3
2 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match FC Koln 10. · Paderborn 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Fortuna Dusseldorf 9 6 2 1 +7 20
2 Karlsruhe 9 5 4 0 +6 19
3 Hamburg 9 5 3 1 +13 18
4 Magdeburg 9 4 4 1 +6 16
5 Paderborn 9 4 4 1 +4 16
6 Hannover 9 5 1 3 +4 16
7 Hertha 9 4 2 3 +1 14
8 Elversberg 9 3 4 2 +5 13
9 Nurnberg 9 4 1 4 -1 13
10 FC Koln 9 3 3 3 +3 12
11 Kaiserslautern 9 3 3 3 +1 12
12 Greuther Furth 9 2 4 3 -1 10
13 Darmstadt 9 2 3 4 -3 9
14 Schalke 04 9 2 2 5 -4 8
15 Ulm 9 2 1 6 -3 7
16 Braunschweig 9 2 1 6 -12 7
17 Preußen Münster 9 1 3 5 -5 6
18 Regensburg 9 1 1 7 -21 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

FC Koln Paderborn
40′
🟨 Ilyas Ansah
Half-time 0–0
S. Adamyan 🔁
↦ L. Waldschmidt
46′
46′
🔁 T. Scheller
↦ M. Hoffmeier
61′
🟨 Luis Engelns
Dejan Ljubičić 🟨
62′
M. Olesen 🔁
↦ D. Ljubičić
63′
1–0 J. Thielmann
66′
68′
🟨 Santiago Castaneda
69′
🟨 Aaron Zehnter
71′
🔁 A. Grimaldi
↦ I. Ansah
71′
🔁 S. Michel
↦ F. Bilbija
71′
🔁 A. Sanchez
↦ K. Kostons
76′
S. Michel 1–1
A. Grimaldi
S. Tigges 🔁
↦ T. Lemperle
77′
80′
S. Michel 1–2
S. Castañeda
82′
🔁 D. Kinsombi
↦ L. Engelns
F. Kainz 🔁
↦ D. Huseinbašić
84′
D. Heintz 🔁
↦ J. Pauli
84′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

FC Koln

4-2-3-1
40 J. Urbig G
29 J. Thielmann D
4 T. Hübers D
24 J. Pauli D
17 L. Paqarada D
6 E. Martel M
8 D. Huseinbašić M
7 D. Ljubičić M
9 L. Waldschmidt M
37 L. Maina M
19 T. Lemperle F
Bench (9)
23 S. Adamyan
47 M. Olesen
21 S. Tigges
11 F. Kainz
3 D. Heintz
1 M. Schwäbe
16 M. Obuz
35 M. Finkgräfe
18 R. Carstensen

Coach: G. Struber

Paderborn

3-4-3
30 M. Schubert G
33 M. Hoffmeier D
20 F. Götze D
4 C. Brackelmann D
23 R. Obermair M
46 L. Engelns M
5 S. Castañeda M
32 A. Zehnter M
7 F. Bilbija F
10 K. Kostons F
29 I. Ansah F
Bench (9)
25 T. Scheller
39 A. Grimaldi
11 S. Michel
42 A. Sanchez
8 D. Kinsombi
1 P. Boevink
21 A. Bäuerle
9 M. Baur
19 L. Herrmann

Coach: L. Kwasniok

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,67
U
4,17
B ✓
4,54
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,39
U2,5
2,87
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Lechner · 46 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.