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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

Reading

T U S U S

1–2

Full-time

Birmingham

U U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

1,7

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

This season — Championship · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 41%

56%

25%

Points per game

1,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

50%

31%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

50%

Average goals

2,8

1,6

Scored

1,6

0,8

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

64% Possession 36%

10 Shots 5

2 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 25

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Reading 4. · Birmingham 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	17	8	7	2	+13	31
2	Norwich	16	9	4	3	+6	31
3	Watford	17	8	6	3	+9	30
4	Reading	16	9	3	4	+7	30
5	Swansea	16	8	5	3	+9	29
6	Stoke	17	8	4	5	+4	28
7	Bristol City	16	8	3	5	+3	27
8	Cardiff	17	7	5	5	+9	26
9	Brentford	15	7	5	3	+9	26
10	Blackburn	16	7	4	5	+12	25
11	Middlesbrough	17	6	6	5	+2	24
12	Huddersfield	17	7	3	7	+0	24
13	Preston	17	7	2	8	+0	23
14	Luton	17	6	5	6	-6	23
15	Millwall	17	4	9	4	+0	21
16	Birmingham	16	4	7	5	-2	19
17	Barnsley	16	5	4	7	-4	19
18	QPR	17	4	6	7	-7	18
19	Coventry	17	4	6	7	-8	18
20	Sheffield Weds	17	3	6	8	-8	15
21	Rotherham	17	3	4	10	-10	13
22	Nott'm Forest	16	3	4	9	-10	13
23	Wycombe	16	2	5	9	-14	11
24	Derby	16	2	5	9	-14	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	9	7	1	1	+10	22
2	Swansea	9	5	3	1	+7	18
3	Reading	8	6	0	2	+5	18
4	Middlesbrough	8	5	2	1	+7	17
5	Bournemouth	8	5	2	1	+6	17
6	Huddersfield	9	5	1	3	+4	16
7	Norwich	8	4	3	1	+3	15
8	Coventry	9	4	3	2	-1	15
9	Blackburn	8	4	2	2	+6	14
10	Stoke	9	4	2	3	+0	14
11	Brentford	7	3	3	1	+4	12
12	QPR	8	3	3	2	+1	12
13	Luton	8	3	3	2	+0	12
14	Cardiff	8	3	2	3	+6	11
15	Barnsley	8	3	2	3	+0	11
16	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+0	11
17	Nott'm Forest	8	2	3	3	-1	9
18	Millwall	9	1	6	2	-2	9
19	Rotherham	8	2	2	4	-1	8
20	Sheffield Weds	8	1	5	2	-1	8
21	Birmingham	8	2	2	4	-3	8
22	Preston	9	2	1	6	-5	7
23	Wycombe	8	1	3	4	-4	6
24	Derby	8	0	3	5	-10	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	8	5	1	2	+5	16
2	Norwich	8	5	1	2	+3	16
3	Bristol City	8	5	1	2	+3	16
4	Cardiff	9	4	3	2	+3	15
5	Bournemouth	9	3	5	1	+7	14
6	Brentford	8	4	2	2	+5	14
7	Stoke	8	4	2	2	+4	14
8	Reading	8	3	3	2	+2	12
9	Millwall	8	3	3	2	+2	12
10	Blackburn	8	3	2	3	+6	11
11	Swansea	7	3	2	2	+2	11
12	Birmingham	8	2	5	1	+1	11
13	Luton	9	3	2	4	-6	11
14	Watford	8	1	5	2	-1	8
15	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-4	8
16	Barnsley	8	2	2	4	-4	8
17	Derby	8	2	2	4	-4	8
18	Middlesbrough	9	1	4	4	-5	7
19	Sheffield Weds	9	2	1	6	-7	7
20	QPR	9	1	3	5	-8	6
21	Rotherham	9	1	2	6	-9	5
22	Wycombe	8	1	2	5	-10	5
23	Nott'm Forest	8	1	1	6	-9	4
24	Coventry	8	0	3	5	-7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.