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Championship

Referee: England Darren

Middlesbrough

T S S S T

2–0

Full-time

Birmingham

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,3

Scored

1,5

0,3

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

This season — Championship · 16/17 matches

Win Ø 34%

44%

24%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

44%

24%

Both score Ø 37%

44%

29%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,4

0,5

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

53% Possession 47%

16 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 9. · Birmingham 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	17	12	2	3	+16	38
2	Cardiff	18	11	4	3	+12	37
3	Sheffield United	18	12	0	6	+11	36
4	Bristol City	18	8	7	3	+9	31
5	Aston Villa	16	8	4	4	+8	28
6	Derby	16	8	4	4	+6	28
7	Nott'm Forest	18	9	0	9	-1	27
8	Leeds	17	8	2	7	+6	26
9	Middlesbrough	16	7	4	5	+7	25
10	Ipswich	16	8	1	7	+4	25
11	Preston	18	6	7	5	+1	25
12	Sheffield Weds	17	6	6	5	+2	24
13	Brentford	18	5	8	5	+2	23
14	Norwich	18	6	5	7	-6	23
15	Fulham	16	5	7	4	+1	22
16	QPR	18	5	6	7	-6	21
17	Barnsley	17	5	5	7	+0	20
18	Millwall	18	4	7	7	+0	19
19	Reading	17	5	4	8	-3	19
20	Hull	18	4	6	8	-2	18
21	Birmingham	17	4	3	10	-16	15
22	Burton Albion	18	3	5	10	-23	14
23	Bolton	18	2	7	9	-16	13
24	Sunderland	18	1	8	9	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	9	6	3	0	+12	21
2	Sheffield United	9	7	0	2	+9	21
3	Wolves	8	6	1	1	+7	19
4	Nott'm Forest	9	6	0	3	+5	18
5	QPR	9	5	2	2	+4	17
6	Derby	8	5	1	2	+8	16
7	Sheffield Weds	9	4	4	1	+5	16
8	Ipswich	8	5	0	3	+6	15
9	Bristol City	9	4	3	2	+4	15
10	Leeds	9	4	2	3	+6	14
11	Millwall	9	4	2	3	+4	14
12	Aston Villa	7	4	2	1	+4	14
13	Middlesbrough	8	4	2	2	+3	14
14	Birmingham	9	4	2	3	-2	14
15	Preston	9	3	4	2	+2	13
16	Brentford	9	2	6	1	+2	12
17	Hull	9	3	2	4	+7	11
18	Barnsley	9	3	2	4	+0	11
19	Norwich	9	2	4	3	-2	10
20	Fulham	8	1	5	2	-2	8
21	Reading	8	2	2	4	-3	8
22	Bolton	9	2	2	5	-7	8
23	Burton Albion	9	2	1	6	-12	7
24	Sunderland	9	0	4	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	9	6	1	2	+9	19
2	Bristol City	9	4	4	1	+5	16
3	Cardiff	9	5	1	3	+0	16
4	Sheffield United	9	5	0	4	+2	15
5	Aston Villa	9	4	2	3	+4	14
6	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+3	14
7	Norwich	9	4	1	4	-4	13
8	Leeds	8	4	0	4	+0	12
9	Preston	9	3	3	3	-1	12
10	Derby	8	3	3	2	-2	12
11	Middlesbrough	8	3	2	3	+4	11
12	Reading	9	3	2	4	+0	11
13	Brentford	9	3	2	4	+0	11
14	Ipswich	8	3	1	4	-2	10
15	Barnsley	8	2	3	3	+0	9
16	Nott'm Forest	9	3	0	6	-6	9
17	Sheffield Weds	8	2	2	4	-3	8
18	Sunderland	9	1	4	4	-6	7
19	Hull	9	1	4	4	-9	7
20	Burton Albion	9	1	4	4	-11	7
21	Millwall	9	0	5	4	-4	5
22	Bolton	9	0	5	4	-9	5
23	QPR	9	0	4	5	-10	4
24	Birmingham	8	0	1	7	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.