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Primeira Liga

Referee: Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves

Sp Lisbon

S U S T T

4–1

Full-time

Chaves

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 43%

61%

24%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

61%

39%

Both score Ø 55%

58%

52%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,9

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

64% Possession 36%

12 Shots 12

9 Shots on target 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 17

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Chaves 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	34	25	7	2	+54	82
2	Porto	34	22	10	2	+52	76
3	Sp Lisbon	33	20	7	6	+29	67
4	Guimaraes	34	18	8	8	+11	62
5	Sp Braga	34	15	9	10	+15	54
6	Maritimo	34	13	11	10	+2	50
7	Rio Ave	34	14	7	13	+2	49
8	Feirense	34	14	6	14	-14	48
9	Boavista	34	10	13	11	-3	43
10	Chaves	33	8	14	11	-4	38
11	Estoril	34	10	8	16	-6	38
12	Vitoria Setubal	34	10	8	16	-9	38
13	Pacos Ferreira	34	8	12	14	-13	36
14	Belenenses	34	9	9	16	-18	36
15	Moreirense	34	8	9	17	-15	33
16	Tondela	34	8	8	18	-23	32
17	Arouca	34	9	5	20	-24	32
18	Nacional	34	4	9	21	-36	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	14	3	0	+40	45
2	Porto	17	14	3	0	+35	45
3	Sp Lisbon	16	11	3	2	+20	36
4	Maritimo	17	10	5	2	+13	35
5	Sp Braga	17	10	4	3	+19	34
6	Guimaraes	17	8	5	4	+7	29
7	Rio Ave	17	8	4	5	+5	28
8	Chaves	17	6	8	3	+4	26
9	Pacos Ferreira	17	6	8	3	+4	26
10	Vitoria Setubal	17	7	3	7	+1	24
11	Tondela	17	7	3	7	-1	24
12	Feirense	17	7	2	8	-8	23
13	Boavista	17	5	6	6	+3	21
14	Estoril	17	6	2	9	-3	20
15	Arouca	17	6	2	9	-5	20
16	Moreirense	17	4	7	6	-2	19
17	Belenenses	17	4	6	7	-5	18
18	Nacional	17	2	6	9	-12	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	11	4	2	+14	37
2	Guimaraes	17	10	3	4	+4	33
3	Porto	17	8	7	2	+17	31
4	Sp Lisbon	17	9	4	4	+9	31
5	Feirense	17	7	4	6	-6	25
6	Boavista	17	5	7	5	-6	22
7	Rio Ave	17	6	3	8	-3	21
8	Sp Braga	17	5	5	7	-4	20
9	Estoril	17	4	6	7	-3	18
10	Belenenses	17	5	3	9	-13	18
11	Maritimo	17	3	6	8	-11	15
12	Vitoria Setubal	17	3	5	9	-10	14
13	Moreirense	17	4	2	11	-13	14
14	Chaves	16	2	6	8	-8	12
15	Arouca	17	3	3	11	-19	12
16	Pacos Ferreira	17	2	4	11	-17	10
17	Nacional	17	2	3	12	-24	9
18	Tondela	17	1	5	11	-22	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.