La Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Barcelona
Eibar
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Real Madrid
|
37 | 28 | 6 | 3 | +63 | 90 |
| 2 |
Barcelona
|
37 | 27 | 6 | 4 | +77 | 87 |
| 3 |
Ath Madrid
|
38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | +43 | 78 |
| 4 |
Sevilla
|
38 | 21 | 9 | 8 | +20 | 72 |
| 5 |
Villarreal
|
38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | +23 | 67 |
| 6 |
Sociedad
|
38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | +6 | 64 |
| 7 |
Ath Bilbao
|
38 | 19 | 6 | 13 | +10 | 63 |
| 8 |
Espanol
|
38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 56 |
| 9 |
Alaves
|
38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | -2 | 55 |
| 10 |
Eibar
|
37 | 15 | 9 | 13 | +7 | 54 |
| 11 |
Malaga
|
37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | -4 | 46 |
| 12 |
Valencia
|
38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | -9 | 46 |
| 13 |
Celta
|
38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | -16 | 45 |
| 14 |
Las Palmas
|
38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -21 | 39 |
| 15 |
Betis
|
38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -23 | 39 |
| 16 |
La Coruna
|
38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | -18 | 36 |
| 17 |
Leganes
|
38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -19 | 35 |
| 18 |
Sp Gijon
|
38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -30 | 31 |
| 19 |
Osasuna
|
38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | -54 | 22 |
| 20 |
Granada
|
38 | 4 | 8 | 26 | -52 | 20 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Las Palmas
Barcelona
Barcelona
Villarreal
Espanol
Barcelona
Barcelona
Osasuna
Real Madrid
Barcelona
Alejandro Hernandez · 223 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.