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La Liga

Referee: Javier Estrada Fernandez

Ath Madrid

S T S S U

3–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,8

2,0

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,3

This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 55%

59%

51%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

41%

57%

Both score Ø 45%

32%

57%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

0,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 3. · Ath Bilbao 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	37	28	6	3	+63	90
2	Barcelona	37	27	6	4	+77	87
3	Ath Madrid	37	22	9	6	+41	75
4	Sevilla	38	21	9	8	+20	72
5	Villarreal	37	18	10	9	+21	64
6	Ath Bilbao	37	19	6	12	+12	63
7	Sociedad	37	19	6	12	+6	63
8	Espanol	38	15	11	12	-1	56
9	Alaves	38	14	13	11	-2	55
10	Eibar	37	15	9	13	+7	54
11	Malaga	37	12	10	15	-4	46
12	Valencia	37	13	7	17	-7	46
13	Celta	37	13	5	19	-16	44
14	Las Palmas	38	10	9	19	-21	39
15	Betis	38	10	9	19	-23	39
16	La Coruna	38	8	12	18	-18	36
17	Leganes	38	8	11	19	-19	35
18	Sp Gijon	38	7	10	21	-30	31
19	Osasuna	38	4	10	24	-54	22
20	Granada	38	4	8	26	-52	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	19	14	4	1	+28	46
2	Sevilla	19	14	4	1	+23	46
3	Barcelona	18	14	3	1	+45	45
4	Ath Bilbao	19	13	4	2	+18	43
5	Ath Madrid	18	13	2	3	+24	41
6	Villarreal	19	11	4	4	+17	37
7	Sociedad	19	10	5	4	+6	35
8	Las Palmas	19	9	6	4	+8	33
9	Eibar	19	10	3	6	+8	33
10	Malaga	18	10	2	6	+9	32
11	Espanol	19	8	5	6	+4	29
12	Alaves	19	7	8	4	-2	29
13	Valencia	18	8	4	6	+2	28
14	Celta	18	9	1	8	-2	28
15	La Coruna	19	7	5	7	+4	26
16	Betis	19	6	7	6	-2	25
17	Leganes	19	5	6	8	-1	21
18	Sp Gijon	19	5	4	10	-12	19
19	Granada	19	4	4	11	-15	16
20	Osasuna	19	2	7	10	-16	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	14	2	2	+35	44
2	Barcelona	19	13	3	3	+32	42
3	Ath Madrid	19	9	7	3	+17	34
4	Sociedad	18	9	1	8	+0	28
5	Villarreal	18	7	6	5	+4	27
6	Espanol	19	7	6	6	-5	27
7	Alaves	19	7	5	7	+0	26
8	Sevilla	19	7	5	7	-3	26
9	Eibar	18	5	6	7	-1	21
10	Ath Bilbao	18	6	2	10	-6	20
11	Valencia	19	5	3	11	-9	18
12	Celta	19	4	4	11	-14	16
13	Malaga	19	2	8	9	-13	14
14	Leganes	19	3	5	11	-18	14
15	Betis	19	4	2	13	-21	14
16	Sp Gijon	19	2	6	11	-18	12
17	La Coruna	19	1	7	11	-22	10
18	Osasuna	19	2	3	14	-38	9
19	Las Palmas	19	1	3	15	-29	6
20	Granada	19	0	4	15	-37	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.