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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira

Arouca

S S U T U

2–2

Full-time

Belenenses

U U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

20%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

1,8

3,6

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

20%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

1,8

3,6

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

22 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 7. · Belenenses 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	4	2	0	+8	14
2	Sp Lisbon	6	4	2	0	+5	14
3	Benfica	6	4	0	2	+12	12
4	Sp Braga	5	3	0	2	+7	9
5	Estoril	5	3	0	2	-2	9
6	Rio Ave	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Arouca	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Maritimo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Boavista	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	4	1	+1	7
12	Nacional	6	2	1	3	+0	7
13	U. Madeira	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Guimaraes	5	1	3	1	-2	6
15	Belenenses	5	1	3	1	-4	6
16	Tondela	6	1	0	5	-4	3
17	Moreirense	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Academica	5	0	0	5	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+14	12
2	Sp Braga	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Nacional	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	U. Madeira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	3	0	+0	3
14	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Tondela	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Academica	3	0	0	3	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Rio Ave	3	1	2	0	+3	5
3	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
4	Arouca	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Boavista	3	1	1	1	-2	4
7	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	-2	4
8	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-5	3
9	Guimaraes	3	0	2	1	-3	2
10	U. Madeira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Maritimo	3	0	1	2	-5	1
12	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-6	1
13	Sp Braga	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Benfica	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-3	0
16	Academica	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-3	0
18	Moreirense	3	0	0	3	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.