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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Middlesbrough

U T U S U

0–1

Full-time

Chelsea

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,7

3,2

Scored

0,8

2,7

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+2,2

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 46%

18%

73%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

36%

82%

Both score Ø 50%

64%

36%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

0,9

2,4

Conceded

1,1

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 13

1 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 15. · Chelsea 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	8	3	1	+16	27
2	Man City	12	8	3	1	+16	27
3	Chelsea	11	8	1	2	+17	25
4	Arsenal	12	7	4	1	+13	25
5	Tottenham	12	6	6	0	+10	24
6	Man United	12	5	4	3	+3	19
7	Everton	12	5	4	3	+2	19
8	Watford	12	5	3	4	-3	18
9	Bournemouth	12	4	3	5	-2	15
10	Southampton	12	3	5	4	+0	14
11	Burnley	11	4	2	5	-4	14
12	West Brom	11	3	4	4	-3	13
13	Stoke	12	3	4	5	-6	13
14	Leicester	12	3	3	6	-6	12
15	Middlesbrough	11	2	5	4	-2	11
16	Crystal Palace	12	3	2	7	-4	11
17	West Ham	12	3	2	7	-10	11
18	Hull	12	3	1	8	-17	10
19	Sunderland	12	2	2	8	-9	8
20	Swansea	12	1	3	8	-11	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	5	0	1	+15	15
2	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+5	14
3	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+13	13
4	Burnley	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Man City	6	3	3	0	+7	12
6	Everton	6	3	3	0	+5	12
7	Leicester	6	3	2	1	+5	11
8	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	+4	11
9	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+4	10
10	Watford	6	3	1	2	+1	10
11	Man United	6	2	3	1	+4	9
12	Southampton	6	2	3	1	+1	9
13	West Ham	6	2	2	2	-3	8
14	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-4	7
15	Hull	6	2	0	4	-6	6
16	West Brom	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Middlesbrough	5	1	1	3	-1	4
18	Crystal Palace	6	1	1	4	-2	4
19	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-5	4
20	Swansea	6	0	2	4	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	5	0	1	+9	15
2	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	14
3	Liverpool	7	4	2	1	+3	14
4	Tottenham	6	2	4	0	+5	10
5	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	West Brom	6	2	2	2	+0	8
8	Watford	6	2	2	2	-4	8
9	Middlesbrough	6	1	4	1	-1	7
10	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Everton	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Stoke	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Southampton	6	1	2	3	-1	5
14	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	Swansea	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-4	4
17	Hull	6	1	1	4	-11	4
18	West Ham	6	1	0	5	-7	3
19	Burnley	4	0	1	3	-8	1
20	Leicester	6	0	1	5	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.