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Ligue 1

Referee: Sebastien Moreira

Troyes

T T U T T

2–3

Full-time

Marseille

U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Troyes Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,2

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 41%

25%

56%

Points per game

0,9

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

41%

56%

Both score Ø 42%

34%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

35% Possession 65%

12 Shots 21

7 Shots on target 9

0 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Troyes 19. · Marseille 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	32	27	3	2	+74	84
2	Monaco	32	21	7	4	+43	70
3	Lyon	33	19	9	5	+36	66
4	Marseille	32	18	9	5	+26	63
5	Rennes	33	13	8	12	+2	47
6	Nice	33	13	8	12	-1	47
7	Montpellier	33	10	16	7	+3	46
8	St Etienne	33	12	10	11	-7	46
9	Nantes	33	12	9	12	-4	45
10	Bordeaux	33	12	7	14	-4	43
11	Guingamp	33	11	9	13	-10	42
12	Dijon	33	11	9	13	-15	42
13	Angers	33	8	13	12	-6	37
14	Amiens	33	10	7	16	-8	37
15	Caen	32	10	5	17	-19	35
16	Strasbourg	33	8	10	15	-20	34
17	Toulouse	32	7	9	16	-15	30
18	Lille	33	7	8	18	-21	29
19	Troyes	32	8	5	19	-21	29
20	Metz	33	6	7	20	-33	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	16	0	0	+51	48
2	Monaco	17	14	2	1	+29	44
3	Marseille	16	9	5	2	+19	32
4	Lyon	16	9	5	2	+14	32
5	Dijon	16	9	3	4	+7	30
6	Guingamp	17	7	6	4	+4	27
7	Nice	17	8	3	6	+2	27
8	St Etienne	16	6	7	3	+1	25
9	Bordeaux	16	7	4	5	+1	25
10	Caen	16	7	3	6	-1	24
11	Nantes	16	7	3	6	-1	24
12	Montpellier	17	5	8	4	+2	23
13	Strasbourg	17	6	5	6	-1	23
14	Amiens	16	6	4	6	+3	22
15	Angers	17	5	6	6	-3	21
16	Rennes	16	6	3	7	-3	21
17	Troyes	16	6	3	7	-3	21
18	Toulouse	16	5	5	6	+0	20
19	Lille	17	4	6	7	-6	18
20	Metz	16	3	3	10	-16	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	11	3	2	+23	36
2	Lyon	17	10	4	3	+22	34
3	Marseille	16	9	4	3	+7	31
4	Monaco	15	7	5	3	+14	26
5	Rennes	17	7	5	5	+5	26
6	Montpellier	16	5	8	3	+1	23
7	Nantes	17	5	6	6	-3	21
8	St Etienne	17	6	3	8	-8	21
9	Nice	16	5	5	6	-3	20
10	Bordeaux	17	5	3	9	-5	18
11	Angers	16	3	7	6	-3	16
12	Amiens	17	4	3	10	-11	15
13	Guingamp	16	4	3	9	-14	15
14	Metz	17	3	4	10	-17	13
15	Dijon	17	2	6	9	-22	12
16	Lille	16	3	2	11	-15	11
17	Caen	16	3	2	11	-18	11
18	Strasbourg	16	2	5	9	-19	11
19	Toulouse	16	2	4	10	-15	10
20	Troyes	16	2	2	12	-18	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.