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Ligue 1

Referee: Olivier Thual

Marseille

S S U S T

3–1

Full-time

Troyes

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Troyes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 45%

56%

33%

Points per game

1,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

44%

39%

Average goals

3,1

2,4

Scored

1,9

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

62% Possession 38%

20 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 4. · Troyes 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	15	2	1	+41	47
2	Monaco	18	12	2	4	+26	38
3	Lyon	18	11	5	2	+25	38
4	Marseille	18	10	5	3	+14	35
5	Nantes	18	9	3	6	-1	30
6	Nice	18	8	2	8	-5	26
7	Rennes	18	7	4	7	-1	25
8	Dijon	18	7	3	8	-4	24
9	Strasbourg	18	6	6	6	-4	24
10	Caen	18	7	3	8	-7	24
11	Montpellier	18	5	8	5	+2	23
12	Guingamp	18	6	5	7	-4	23
13	Amiens	18	6	3	9	-4	21
14	Troyes	18	6	3	9	-5	21
15	Bordeaux	18	5	5	8	-5	20
16	St Etienne	18	5	5	8	-14	20
17	Toulouse	18	5	4	9	-8	19
18	Lille	18	5	3	10	-13	18
19	Angers	18	2	9	7	-9	15
20	Metz	18	2	2	14	-24	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	9	0	0	+25	27
2	Monaco	9	7	1	1	+18	22
3	Dijon	10	6	1	3	+5	19
4	Nantes	9	6	1	2	+4	19
5	Lyon	9	5	3	1	+9	18
6	Marseille	8	5	2	1	+12	17
7	Caen	10	5	2	3	+1	17
8	Guingamp	9	4	4	1	+6	16
9	Nice	10	5	1	4	+1	16
10	Strasbourg	9	4	3	2	+4	15
11	Bordeaux	8	4	2	2	+3	14
12	Toulouse	8	4	2	2	+3	14
13	Troyes	10	4	2	4	+0	14
14	Amiens	8	4	1	3	+3	13
15	Montpellier	10	3	4	3	+2	13
16	Rennes	9	4	1	4	-1	13
17	St Etienne	10	3	4	3	-4	13
18	Lille	8	3	2	3	-1	11
19	Angers	8	0	4	4	-8	4
20	Metz	9	0	1	8	-17	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	6	2	1	+16	20
2	Lyon	9	6	2	1	+16	20
3	Marseille	10	5	3	2	+2	18
4	Monaco	9	5	1	3	+8	16
5	Rennes	9	3	3	3	+0	12
6	Angers	10	2	5	3	-1	11
7	Nantes	9	3	2	4	-5	11
8	Montpellier	8	2	4	2	+0	10
9	Nice	8	3	1	4	-6	10
10	Strasbourg	9	2	3	4	-8	9
11	Amiens	10	2	2	6	-7	8
12	Troyes	8	2	1	5	-5	7
13	Metz	9	2	1	6	-7	7
14	Caen	8	2	1	5	-8	7
15	Guingamp	9	2	1	6	-10	7
16	St Etienne	8	2	1	5	-10	7
17	Lille	10	2	1	7	-12	7
18	Bordeaux	10	1	3	6	-8	6
19	Dijon	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Toulouse	10	1	2	7	-11	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.