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Ligue 1

Referee: Mikael Lesage

Monaco

S S S U U

3–1

Full-time

Metz

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 41%

62%

19%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

62%

48%

Both score Ø 43%

48%

38%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%

13 Shots 3

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Monaco 4. · Metz 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	21	18	2	1	+52	56
2	Marseille	22	14	5	3	+23	47
3	Lyon	21	13	6	2	+28	45
4	Monaco	21	13	4	4	+27	43
5	Nantes	22	10	4	8	-2	34
6	Nice	22	10	4	8	-3	34
7	Montpellier	22	7	10	5	+5	31
8	Rennes	22	9	4	9	-3	31
9	Guingamp	22	8	5	9	-5	29
10	Strasbourg	22	7	6	9	-10	27
11	Caen	22	8	3	11	-10	27
12	Bordeaux	22	7	5	10	-7	26
13	Amiens	22	7	4	11	-4	25
14	Dijon	22	7	4	11	-14	25
15	Troyes	22	7	3	12	-9	24
16	St Etienne	22	6	5	11	-17	23
17	Angers	22	4	10	8	-7	22
18	Lille	22	6	4	12	-14	22
19	Toulouse	22	5	5	12	-12	20
20	Metz	21	4	3	14	-18	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	11	0	0	+35	33
2	Monaco	11	8	2	1	+19	26
3	Marseille	10	7	2	1	+16	23
4	Nice	12	7	1	4	+3	22
5	Dijon	11	6	2	3	+5	20
6	Lyon	10	5	4	1	+9	19
7	Guingamp	11	5	4	2	+5	19
8	Nantes	11	6	1	4	+2	19
9	Strasbourg	11	5	3	3	+3	18
10	Amiens	11	5	2	4	+4	17
11	Montpellier	12	4	5	3	+3	17
12	Troyes	12	5	2	5	+0	17
13	Caen	12	5	2	5	-2	17
14	St Etienne	11	4	4	3	-2	16
15	Rennes	11	5	1	5	-3	16
16	Toulouse	10	4	3	3	+2	15
17	Bordeaux	10	4	2	4	-1	14
18	Lille	10	3	3	4	-2	12
19	Angers	10	2	4	4	-5	10
20	Metz	11	2	1	8	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	11	8	2	1	+19	26
2	Marseille	12	7	3	2	+7	24
3	Paris SG	10	7	2	1	+17	23
4	Monaco	10	5	2	3	+8	17
5	Rennes	11	4	3	4	+0	15
6	Nantes	11	4	3	4	-4	15
7	Montpellier	10	3	5	2	+2	14
8	Angers	12	2	6	4	-2	12
9	Bordeaux	12	3	3	6	-6	12
10	Nice	10	3	3	4	-6	12
11	Caen	10	3	1	6	-8	10
12	Guingamp	11	3	1	7	-10	10
13	Lille	12	3	1	8	-12	10
14	Strasbourg	11	2	3	6	-13	9
15	Metz	10	2	2	6	-7	8
16	Amiens	11	2	2	7	-8	8
17	Troyes	10	2	1	7	-9	7
18	St Etienne	11	2	1	8	-15	7
19	Toulouse	12	1	2	9	-14	5
20	Dijon	11	1	2	8	-19	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.