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Ligue 1
Referee: Francois Letexier
Caen
T U T T S
0–2
Full-time
Marseille
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,0
2,7
Scored
0,7
2,0
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+1,3
This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 50%
38%
62%
Points per game
1,3
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 36%
19%
52%
Both score Ø 31%
19%
43%
Average goals
1,7
3,1
Scored
0,7
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

38% Possession 62%
5 Shots 12
2 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 4
2 Offside 4
18 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Caen 10. · Marseille 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 21 18 2 1 +52 56
2 Lyon 21 13 6 2 +28 45
3 Marseille 21 13 5 3 +21 44
4 Monaco 21 13 4 4 +27 43
5 Nantes 21 10 4 7 -1 34
6 Nice 21 9 4 8 -4 31
7 Guingamp 21 8 5 8 -3 29
8 Montpellier 21 6 10 5 +4 28
9 Rennes 21 8 4 9 -4 28
10 Caen 21 8 3 10 -8 27
11 Dijon 21 7 4 10 -13 25
12 Strasbourg 21 6 6 9 -11 24
13 Bordeaux 21 6 5 10 -8 23
14 St Etienne 21 6 5 10 -16 23
15 Angers 21 4 10 7 -6 22
16 Amiens 21 6 4 11 -6 22
17 Lille 21 6 4 11 -13 22
18 Troyes 21 6 3 12 -10 21
19 Toulouse 21 5 5 11 -11 20
20 Metz 21 4 3 14 -18 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Caen Marseille
29′
🟨 Bouna Sarr
Frédéric Guilbert 🟨
38′
42′
🟨 Rolando
Half-time 0–0
53′
🟨 Florian Thauvin
55′
D. Payet 0–1
Damien Da Silva 🟨
58′
H. Bazile 🔁
↦ T. Stavitski
61′
I. Diomandé 🔁
↦ J. Delaplace
69′
72′
🔁 L. Ocampos
↦ D. Payet
74′
F. Thauvin 0–2
78′
🔁 V. Germain
↦ F. Thauvin
J. Repas 🔁
↦ J. Féret
84′
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Caen

4-1-4-1
1 R. Vercoutre G
28 D. Da Silva D
21 F. Guilbert D
24 A. Djiku D
11 V. Bessat D
25 J. Féret M
6 J. Delaplace M
5 B. Sankoh M
12 R. Rodelin F
26 I. Santini F
7 T. Stavitski F
Bench (7)
20 H. Bazile
4 I. Diomandé
9 J. Repas
33 Y. Armougom
18 D. Avounou
29 R. Genevois
30 B. Samba

Coach: P. Garande

Marseille

4-2-3-1
30 S. Mandanda G
23 A. Rami D
6 Rolando D
2 H. Sakai D
10 D. Payet M
19 Luiz Gustavo M
17 B. Sarr D
27 M. Lopez M
29 A. Zambo Anguissa
26 F. Thauvin M
14 C. N'Jie F
Bench (7)
5 L. Ocampos
28 V. Germain
4 B. Kamara
11 K. Mitroglou
12 H. Bedimo
13 A. Abdennour
16 Y. Pelé

Coach: R. Garcia

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Francois Letexier · 69 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.