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Ligue 1

Referee: Bartolomeu Varela Teles

Marseille

S T S U S

2–2

Full-time

Montpellier

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 35%

38%

31%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

38%

44%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

66% Possession 34%

14 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 9. · Montpellier 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	14	3	0	+32	45
2	Angers	17	8	6	3	+7	30
3	Caen	17	9	2	6	+2	29
4	Monaco	17	7	7	3	+1	28
5	Lyon	17	7	5	5	+5	26
6	Nice	17	7	4	6	+8	25
7	Lorient	17	6	7	4	+4	25
8	St Etienne	16	8	1	7	+0	25
9	Marseille	16	6	4	6	+7	22
10	Rennes	16	5	7	4	+2	22
11	Nantes	17	6	4	7	-3	22
12	Lille	17	4	8	5	-1	20
13	Reims	17	5	5	7	-3	20
14	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	17	5	5	7	-3	20
15	Guingamp	16	5	4	7	-6	19
16	Montpellier	16	5	3	8	-3	18
17	Bordeaux	16	4	6	6	-6	18
18	Bastia	17	5	3	9	-6	18
19	Toulouse	17	3	6	8	-12	15
20	Troyes	17	0	6	11	-25	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+17	19
2	St Etienne	8	5	1	2	+6	16
3	Caen	9	5	1	3	-1	16
4	Lorient	9	4	3	2	+6	15
5	Bastia	9	5	0	4	+3	15
6	Lyon	9	4	2	3	+4	14
7	Bordeaux	8	4	2	2	+3	14
8	Angers	9	3	5	1	+2	14
9	Guingamp	8	3	3	2	+3	12
10	Reims	9	3	3	3	+2	12
11	Montpellier	9	4	0	5	-1	12
12	Lille	8	3	2	3	+1	11
13	Nantes	8	3	2	3	-1	11
14	Nice	8	3	1	4	+3	10
15	Toulouse	8	2	4	2	+1	10
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	8	2	4	2	+1	10
17	Monaco	8	2	4	2	-2	10
18	Marseille	8	2	3	3	+6	9
19	Rennes	8	2	3	3	-2	9
20	Troyes	9	0	4	5	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	8	2	0	+15	26
2	Monaco	9	5	3	1	+3	18
3	Angers	8	5	1	2	+5	16
4	Nice	9	4	3	2	+5	15
5	Rennes	8	3	4	1	+4	13
6	Caen	8	4	1	3	+3	13
7	Marseille	8	4	1	3	+1	13
8	Lyon	8	3	3	2	+1	12
9	Nantes	9	3	2	4	-2	11
10	Lorient	8	2	4	2	-2	10
11	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	9	3	1	5	-4	10
12	Lille	9	1	6	2	-2	9
13	St Etienne	8	3	0	5	-6	9
14	Reims	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Guingamp	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Montpellier	7	1	3	3	-2	6
17	Toulouse	9	1	2	6	-13	5
18	Bordeaux	8	0	4	4	-9	4
19	Bastia	8	0	3	5	-9	3
20	Troyes	8	0	2	6	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.