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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Lyon

U S S S T

2–4

Full-time

Montpellier

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 40%

50%

29%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 40%

29%

50%

Average goals

2,1

2,2

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

65% Possession 35%

13 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lyon 2. · Montpellier 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	12	2	0	+26	38
2	Lyon	14	7	4	3	+9	25
3	Caen	14	8	1	5	+0	25
4	Nice	14	7	3	4	+13	24
5	Angers	14	6	5	3	+3	23
6	Monaco	14	6	5	3	+0	23
7	St Etienne	14	7	1	6	-2	22
8	Rennes	14	5	6	3	+3	21
9	Lorient	14	5	5	4	+3	20
10	Guingamp	14	5	4	5	-2	19
11	Nantes	14	6	1	7	-3	19
12	Marseille	14	5	3	6	+6	18
13	Bordeaux	14	4	6	4	-2	18
14	Montpellier	14	4	3	7	-3	15
15	Reims	14	4	3	7	-4	15
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	14	4	3	7	-5	15
17	Lille	14	2	8	4	-1	14
18	Bastia	14	4	2	8	-6	14
19	Toulouse	14	1	6	7	-16	9
20	Troyes	14	0	5	9	-19	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	5	1	0	+14	16
2	Caen	8	5	1	2	+0	16
3	Lyon	7	4	2	1	+8	14
4	Lorient	8	4	2	2	+6	14
5	Bordeaux	7	4	2	1	+6	14
6	St Etienne	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Guingamp	7	3	3	1	+4	12
8	Bastia	7	4	0	3	+3	12
9	Montpellier	8	4	0	4	+1	12
10	Nice	7	3	1	3	+6	10
11	Reims	7	3	1	3	+2	10
12	Angers	7	2	4	1	+0	10
13	Rennes	7	2	3	2	-1	9
14	Nantes	6	3	0	3	-1	9
15	Monaco	7	2	3	2	-2	9
16	Marseille	7	2	2	3	+6	8
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	6	2	2	2	+1	8
18	Lille	7	2	2	3	+0	8
19	Toulouse	6	1	4	1	+0	7
20	Troyes	8	0	4	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	7	1	0	+12	22
2	Nice	7	4	2	1	+7	14
3	Monaco	7	4	2	1	+2	14
4	Angers	7	4	1	2	+3	13
5	Rennes	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Lyon	7	3	2	2	+1	11
7	Marseille	7	3	1	3	+0	10
8	Nantes	8	3	1	4	-2	10
9	Caen	6	3	0	3	+0	9
10	St Etienne	7	3	0	4	-5	9
11	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	8	2	1	5	-6	7
12	Guingamp	7	2	1	4	-6	7
13	Lille	7	0	6	1	-1	6
14	Lorient	6	1	3	2	-3	6
15	Reims	7	1	2	4	-6	5
16	Bordeaux	7	0	4	3	-8	4
17	Montpellier	6	0	3	3	-4	3
18	Bastia	7	0	2	5	-9	2
19	Toulouse	8	0	2	6	-16	2
20	Troyes	6	0	1	5	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.