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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Bastia

T T T S U

1–2

Full-time

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Gazelec FC Ajaccio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 27%

31%

23%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

46%

31%

Both score Ø 42%

46%

38%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,1

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,5

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

45% Possession 55%

9 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 17. · Gazelec FC Ajaccio 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	12	2	0	+26	38
2	Lyon	14	7	4	3	+9	25
3	Nice	14	7	3	4	+13	24
4	Caen	13	8	0	5	+0	24
5	Monaco	14	6	5	3	+0	23
6	Angers	13	6	4	3	+3	22
7	St Etienne	13	7	1	5	+0	22
8	Lorient	14	5	5	4	+3	20
9	Rennes	13	5	5	3	+3	20
10	Guingamp	14	5	4	5	-2	19
11	Nantes	14	6	1	7	-3	19
12	Bordeaux	13	4	5	4	-2	17
13	Marseille	13	4	3	6	+4	15
14	Montpellier	14	4	3	7	-3	15
15	Reims	14	4	3	7	-4	15
16	Lille	14	2	8	4	-1	14
17	Bastia	13	4	2	7	-5	14
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	13	3	3	7	-6	12
19	Toulouse	14	1	6	7	-16	9
20	Troyes	14	0	5	9	-19	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	5	1	0	+14	16
2	Caen	7	5	0	2	+0	15
3	Lyon	7	4	2	1	+8	14
4	Lorient	8	4	2	2	+6	14
5	Bordeaux	7	4	2	1	+6	14
6	St Etienne	6	4	1	1	+5	13
7	Guingamp	7	3	3	1	+4	12
8	Bastia	6	4	0	2	+4	12
9	Montpellier	8	4	0	4	+1	12
10	Nice	7	3	1	3	+6	10
11	Reims	7	3	1	3	+2	10
12	Angers	7	2	4	1	+0	10
13	Nantes	6	3	0	3	-1	9
14	Monaco	7	2	3	2	-2	9
15	Marseille	7	2	2	3	+6	8
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	6	2	2	2	+1	8
17	Lille	7	2	2	3	+0	8
18	Rennes	6	2	2	2	-1	8
19	Toulouse	6	1	4	1	+0	7
20	Troyes	8	0	4	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	7	1	0	+12	22
2	Nice	7	4	2	1	+7	14
3	Monaco	7	4	2	1	+2	14
4	Rennes	7	3	3	1	+4	12
5	Angers	6	4	0	2	+3	12
6	Lyon	7	3	2	2	+1	11
7	Nantes	8	3	1	4	-2	10
8	Caen	6	3	0	3	+0	9
9	St Etienne	7	3	0	4	-5	9
10	Marseille	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Guingamp	7	2	1	4	-6	7
12	Lille	7	0	6	1	-1	6
13	Lorient	6	1	3	2	-3	6
14	Reims	7	1	2	4	-6	5
15	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	7	1	1	5	-7	4
16	Montpellier	6	0	3	3	-4	3
17	Bordeaux	6	0	3	3	-8	3
18	Bastia	7	0	2	5	-9	2
19	Toulouse	8	0	2	6	-16	2
20	Troyes	6	0	1	5	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.