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Serie A
Referee: Massimiliano Irrati
Atalanta
U T S U S
3–3
Full-time
Lazio
S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Lazio
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
2,2
3,5
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
1,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,5
This season — Serie A · 16/15 matches
Win Ø 53%
38%
67%
Points per game
1,4
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
50%
87%
Both score Ø 75%
69%
80%
Average goals
2,7
3,7
Scored
1,4
2,4
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

50% Possession 50%
13 Shots 13
6 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 7
2 Offside 0
5 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Atalanta 9. · Lazio 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 17 13 3 1 +27 42
2 Juventus 17 13 2 2 +30 41
3 Inter 17 12 4 1 +21 40
4 Roma 16 12 2 2 +18 38
5 Lazio 15 10 2 3 +17 32
6 Sampdoria 16 8 3 5 +7 27
7 Milan 17 7 3 7 -1 24
8 Fiorentina 17 6 5 6 +7 23
9 Atalanta 16 6 5 5 +3 23
10 Torino 17 5 8 4 -2 23
11 Udinese 16 7 0 9 +1 21
12 Bologna 17 6 3 8 -4 21
13 Chievo 17 5 6 6 -10 21
14 Cagliari 17 5 2 10 -12 17
15 Sassuolo 17 5 2 10 -17 17
16 Crotone 17 4 3 10 -19 15
17 Genoa 17 3 5 9 -8 14
18 Spal 17 3 5 9 -12 14
19 Verona 17 3 4 10 -15 13
20 Benevento 17 0 1 16 -31 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Atalanta Lazio
1–0 M. Caldara
A. Petagna
19′
2–0 J. Iličić
A. Gómez
22′
27′
S. Milinković-Savić 2–1
Lucas Leiva
35′
S. Milinković-Savić 2–2
M. Parolo
Half-time 2–2
49′
🟨 Bastos
3–2 J. Iličić
50′
54′
🔁 Wallace
↦ Bastos
Rafael Tolói 🔁
↦ J. Palomino
59′
Remo Freuler 🟨
63′
J. Kurtič 🔁
↦ A. Petagna
71′
75′
🔁 J. Lukaku
↦ S. Lulić
75′
🔁 Felipe Anderson
↦ Lucas Leiva
79′
Luis Alberto 3–3
F. Caicedo
80′
🟨 Wallace dos Santos
Hans Hateboer 🟨
83′
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
1 E. Berisha G
5 A. Masiello D
6 J. Palomino D
37 L. Spinazzola M
33 H. Hateboer M
13 M. Caldara D
10 A. Gómez F
72 J. Iličić F
11 R. Freuler M
4 B. Cristante M
29 A. Petagna F
Bench (12)
3 Rafael Tolói
27 J. Kurtič
7 R. Orsolini
8 R. Gosens
9 A. Cornelius
20 L. Vido
21 T. Castagne
28 G. Mancini
31 F. Rossi
32 N. Haas
88 João Schmidt
91 P. Gollini

Coach: G. Gasperini

Lazio

3-5-1-1
1 T. Strakosha G
26 Ş. Radu D
3 S. de Vrij D
15 Bastos D
77 A. Marušić M
6 Lucas Leiva M
19 S. Lulić M
16 M. Parolo M
18 Luis Alberto F
21 S. Milinković-Savić M
20 F. Caicedo F
Bench (12)
13 Wallace
5 J. Lukaku
10 Felipe Anderson
4 Patric
8 D. Basta
23 G. Guerrieri
25 I. Vargić
27 Luiz Felipe
29 S. Palombi
30 Pedro Neto
66 Bruno Jordão
96 A. Murgia

Coach: S. Inzaghi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Massimiliano Irrati · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.