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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Tagliavento

Roma

S S S S T

2–0

Full-time

Lazio

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

2,8

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 60%

64%

55%

Points per game

2,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

73%

Both score Ø 64%

82%

45%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

14 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 6

2 Offside 6

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 3. · Lazio 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	12	8	3	1	+5	27
2	Fiorentina	11	8	0	3	+13	24
3	Roma	11	7	2	2	+12	23
4	Napoli	11	6	4	1	+13	22
5	Milan	12	6	2	4	-1	20
6	Sassuolo	11	5	4	2	+3	19
7	Atalanta	12	5	3	4	-1	18
8	Lazio	11	6	0	5	-2	18
9	Sampdoria	11	4	4	3	+4	16
10	Juventus	11	4	3	4	+3	15
11	Torino	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	Empoli	11	4	2	5	-3	14
13	Chievo	11	3	4	4	+3	13
14	Bologna	12	4	0	8	-4	12
15	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-4	12
16	Genoa	11	3	3	5	-4	12
17	Palermo	11	3	2	6	-5	11
18	Frosinone	11	3	1	7	-7	10
19	Verona	12	0	6	6	-11	6
20	Carpi	11	1	3	7	-13	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	6	5	0	1	+10	15
2	Lazio	6	5	0	1	+8	15
3	Sampdoria	6	4	2	0	+9	14
4	Roma	5	4	1	0	+9	13
5	Napoli	5	4	1	0	+9	13
6	Atalanta	5	4	1	0	+7	13
7	Inter	6	4	1	1	+1	13
8	Milan	6	4	1	1	+0	13
9	Torino	6	3	2	1	+4	11
10	Juventus	6	3	2	1	+4	11
11	Sassuolo	5	3	2	0	+3	11
12	Genoa	5	3	1	1	+2	10
13	Frosinone	5	3	0	2	+2	9
14	Chievo	6	2	2	2	+3	8
15	Empoli	5	2	1	2	+0	7
16	Bologna	6	2	0	4	+0	6
17	Udinese	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Carpi	6	1	2	3	-2	5
19	Palermo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
20	Verona	6	0	3	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	6	4	2	0	+4	14
2	Roma	6	3	1	2	+3	10
3	Napoli	6	2	3	1	+4	9
4	Fiorentina	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	+0	8
6	Milan	6	2	1	3	-1	7
7	Udinese	5	2	1	2	-2	7
8	Empoli	6	2	1	3	-3	7
9	Palermo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
10	Bologna	6	2	0	4	-4	6
11	Chievo	5	1	2	2	+0	5
12	Atalanta	7	1	2	4	-8	5
13	Juventus	5	1	1	3	-1	4
14	Torino	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Verona	6	0	3	3	-6	3
16	Lazio	5	1	0	4	-10	3
17	Sampdoria	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Genoa	6	0	2	4	-6	2
19	Frosinone	6	0	1	5	-9	1
20	Carpi	5	0	1	4	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.