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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Lorient

S U T T T

1–0

Full-time

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Gazelec FC Ajaccio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 25%

27%

22%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

51%

43%

Both score Ø 60%

65%

54%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

8 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 5

3 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lorient 16. · Gazelec FC Ajaccio 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	37	29	6	2	+79	93
2	Lyon	37	19	8	10	+27	65
3	Monaco	37	16	14	7	+5	62
4	Nice	37	17	9	11	+16	60
5	St Etienne	37	17	7	13	+6	58
6	Lille	37	14	15	8	+11	57
7	Rennes	37	13	13	11	-1	52
8	Caen	37	15	6	16	-14	51
9	Angers	37	13	11	13	+3	50
10	Bordeaux	37	12	14	11	-6	50
11	Montpellier	37	14	7	16	+4	49
12	Nantes	37	12	12	13	-7	48
13	Marseille	37	10	17	10	+6	47
14	Bastia	37	13	8	16	-7	47
15	Guingamp	37	11	11	15	-8	44
16	Lorient	37	10	13	14	-12	43
17	Toulouse	37	8	13	16	-11	37
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	37	8	13	16	-20	37
19	Reims	37	9	9	19	-16	36
20	Troyes	37	3	8	26	-55	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	14	3	1	+43	45
2	Lyon	19	12	4	3	+26	40
3	Nice	19	12	2	5	+16	38
4	Bastia	19	11	2	6	+9	35
5	St Etienne	18	10	4	4	+11	34
6	Lille	19	9	6	4	+10	33
7	Monaco	18	9	6	3	+9	33
8	Bordeaux	19	8	7	4	+7	31
9	Nantes	19	8	5	6	+0	29
10	Montpellier	19	9	0	10	+3	27
11	Caen	18	8	3	7	-5	27
12	Angers	18	6	8	4	+6	26
13	Toulouse	19	6	7	6	+8	25
14	Guingamp	18	6	7	5	+4	25
15	Lorient	18	6	7	5	+4	25
16	Rennes	18	6	7	5	+1	25
17	Reims	18	6	5	7	+2	23
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	19	5	7	7	-9	22
19	Marseille	19	3	11	5	+3	20
20	Troyes	18	1	6	11	-23	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	19	15	3	1	+36	48
2	Monaco	19	7	8	4	-4	29
3	Marseille	18	7	6	5	+3	27
4	Rennes	19	7	6	6	-2	27
5	Lyon	18	7	4	7	+1	25
6	Lille	18	5	9	4	+1	24
7	Angers	19	7	3	9	-3	24
8	St Etienne	19	7	3	9	-5	24
9	Caen	19	7	3	9	-9	24
10	Montpellier	18	5	7	6	+1	22
11	Nice	18	5	7	6	+0	22
12	Nantes	18	4	7	7	-7	19
13	Guingamp	19	5	4	10	-12	19
14	Bordeaux	18	4	7	7	-13	19
15	Lorient	19	4	6	9	-16	18
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	18	3	6	9	-11	15
17	Reims	19	3	4	12	-18	13
18	Bastia	18	2	6	10	-16	12
19	Toulouse	18	2	6	10	-19	12
20	Troyes	19	2	2	15	-32	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.