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Serie A

Referee: Davide Massa

Milan

T T S U T

3–3

Full-time

Frosinone

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Frosinone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,7

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 32%

40%

23%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

40%

49%

Both score Ø 49%

51%

46%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

72% Possession 28%

24 Shots 9

11 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

12 Corners 2

2 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Frosinone 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	36	28	4	4	+51	88
2	Napoli	35	22	7	6	+42	73
3	Roma	35	20	11	4	+36	71
4	Inter	35	19	7	9	+15	64
5	Fiorentina	36	17	9	10	+16	60
6	Milan	35	14	11	10	+7	53
7	Sassuolo	35	13	13	9	+5	52
8	Chievo	36	13	10	13	+1	49
9	Lazio	35	13	9	13	-2	48
10	Torino	36	12	9	15	-1	45
11	Genoa	35	12	7	16	-4	43
12	Empoli	35	11	9	15	-9	42
13	Atalanta	35	10	11	14	-6	41
14	Sampdoria	35	10	10	15	-3	40
15	Bologna	35	11	7	17	-11	40
16	Udinese	36	10	8	18	-24	38
17	Carpi	36	8	11	17	-19	35
18	Palermo	35	8	8	19	-30	32
19	Frosinone	35	8	6	21	-36	30
20	Verona	35	4	13	18	-28	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	15	2	1	+26	47
2	Napoli	17	14	3	0	+32	45
3	Roma	18	12	5	1	+24	41
4	Inter	18	12	2	4	+13	38
5	Fiorentina	18	11	4	3	+18	37
6	Genoa	17	10	3	4	+12	33
7	Milan	17	9	5	3	+8	32
8	Lazio	17	9	3	5	+9	30
9	Atalanta	18	8	5	5	+6	29
10	Sampdoria	18	8	4	6	+7	28
11	Chievo	18	7	7	4	+7	28
12	Sassuolo	17	6	8	3	+2	26
13	Torino	18	6	6	6	+1	24
14	Empoli	17	6	5	6	+1	23
15	Carpi	18	6	5	7	-1	23
16	Frosinone	18	6	4	8	-7	22
17	Udinese	18	6	4	8	-9	22
18	Bologna	18	5	5	8	+0	20
19	Palermo	17	4	4	9	-9	16
20	Verona	18	3	6	9	-10	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	13	2	3	+25	41
2	Roma	17	8	6	3	+12	30
3	Napoli	18	8	4	6	+10	28
4	Sassuolo	18	7	5	6	+3	26
5	Inter	17	7	5	5	+2	26
6	Fiorentina	18	6	5	7	-2	23
7	Milan	18	5	6	7	-1	21
8	Torino	18	6	3	9	-2	21
9	Chievo	18	6	3	9	-6	21
10	Bologna	17	6	2	9	-11	20
11	Empoli	18	5	4	9	-10	19
12	Lazio	18	4	6	8	-11	18
13	Udinese	18	4	4	10	-15	16
14	Palermo	18	4	4	10	-21	16
15	Sampdoria	17	2	6	9	-10	12
16	Atalanta	17	2	6	9	-12	12
17	Carpi	18	2	6	10	-18	12
18	Genoa	18	2	4	12	-16	10
19	Verona	17	1	7	9	-18	10
20	Frosinone	17	2	2	13	-29	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.