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Serie A
Referee: Paolo Valeri
Sassuolo
T S T S U
1–0
Full-time
Carpi
S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sassuolo Carpi
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
1,7
3,0
Scored
0,8
0,8
Conceded
0,8
2,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-1,3
This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 27%
45%
9%
Points per game
1,7
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
45%
73%
Both score Ø 60%
55%
64%
Average goals
2,1
3,0
Scored
1,2
0,9
Conceded
0,9
2,1
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-1,2
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%
9 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 7
2 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
4 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sassuolo 6. · Carpi 20.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 12 8 3 1 +5 27
2 Fiorentina 11 8 0 3 +13 24
3 Roma 11 7 2 2 +12 23
4 Napoli 11 6 4 1 +13 22
5 Milan 12 6 2 4 -1 20
6 Sassuolo 11 5 4 2 +3 19
7 Atalanta 12 5 3 4 -1 18
8 Lazio 11 6 0 5 -2 18
9 Sampdoria 11 4 4 3 +4 16
10 Juventus 11 4 3 4 +3 15
11 Torino 12 4 3 5 -1 15
12 Empoli 11 4 2 5 -3 14
13 Chievo 11 3 4 4 +3 13
14 Bologna 12 4 0 8 -4 12
15 Udinese 11 3 3 5 -4 12
16 Genoa 11 3 3 5 -4 12
17 Palermo 11 3 2 6 -5 11
18 Frosinone 11 3 1 7 -7 10
19 Verona 12 0 6 6 -11 6
20 Carpi 11 1 3 7 -13 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sassuolo Carpi
Diego Falcinelli 🟨
23′
27′
🟨 Luca Marrone
1–0 N. Sansone
D. Berardi
28′
Half-time 1–0
Lorenzo Pellegrini 🟨
58′
59′
🟨 Lorenzo Lollo
61′
🔁 A. Di Gaudio
↦ L. Marrone
64′
🟨 Cristian Zaccardo
D. Biondini 🔁
↦ L. Pellegrini
64′
Davide Biondini 🟨
66′
66′
🔁 Ryder Matos
↦ L. Pasciuti
G. Defrel 🔁
↦ D. Falcinelli
67′
M. Gazzola 🔁
↦ Š. Vrsaljko
69′
73′
🟨 Antonio Di Gaudio
77′
🔁 Wallace
↦ C. Zaccardo
Andrea Consigli 🟨
85′
90′
🟨 Wallace
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Sassuolo

47 A. Consigli G
13 F. Peluso D
20 L. Ariaudo D
11 Š. Vrsaljko D
15 F. Acerbi D
7 S. Missiroli M
4 F. Magnanelli M
6 L. Pellegrini M
9 D. Falcinelli F
17 N. Sansone F
25 D. Berardi F
Bench (12)
8 D. Biondini
92 G. Defrel
23 M. Gazzola
1 A. Pomini
3 A. Longhi
5 L. Antei
10 K. Laribi
16 M. Politano
21 L. Fontanesi
32 A. Duncan
79 G. Pegolo
99 S. Floccari

Carpi

27 V. Belec G
5 C. Zaccardo D
21 S. Romagnoli D
3 G. Letizia D
6 R. Gagliolo D
8 R. Bianco M
39 L. Marrone M
34 Gabriel Silva D
20 L. Lollo M
19 L. Pasciuti M
15 K. Lasagna F
Bench (10)
11 A. Di Gaudio
7 Ryder Matos
2 Wallace
1 Ž. Brkić
4 I. Cofie
9 K. Wilczek
10 A. Lazzari
14 F. Gino
18 I. Bubnjić
22 F. Benussi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Paolo Valeri · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.