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La Liga

Referee: Alberto Undiano

Real Madrid

S T S S S

4–1

Full-time

Sevilla

U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Sevilla

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,5

3,2

Scored

3,0

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,5

This season — La Liga · 35/36 matches

Win Ø 65%

74%

56%

Points per game

2,4

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

83%

58%

Both score Ø 69%

74%

64%

Average goals

3,9

3,0

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

49% Possession 51%

14 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

3 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Sevilla 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	36	26	6	4	+74	84
2	Real Madrid	35	26	6	3	+57	84
3	Ath Madrid	36	22	8	6	+41	74
4	Sevilla	36	20	9	7	+18	69
5	Villarreal	36	18	9	9	+21	63
6	Ath Bilbao	36	19	5	12	+12	62
7	Sociedad	36	19	5	12	+6	62
8	Eibar	36	15	9	12	+8	54
9	Alaves	37	14	12	11	-2	54
10	Espanol	37	14	11	12	-2	53
11	Valencia	37	13	7	17	-7	46
12	Malaga	36	12	9	15	-4	45
13	Celta	36	13	5	18	-13	44
14	Las Palmas	36	10	9	17	-15	39
15	Betis	36	10	7	19	-23	37
16	Leganes	36	8	9	19	-19	33
17	La Coruna	36	7	11	18	-21	32
18	Sp Gijon	36	6	9	21	-31	27
19	Osasuna	37	4	10	23	-49	22
20	Granada	37	4	8	25	-51	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	14	3	1	+45	45
2	Real Madrid	18	13	4	1	+25	43
3	Sevilla	18	13	4	1	+18	43
4	Ath Bilbao	18	13	3	2	+18	42
5	Ath Madrid	18	13	2	3	+24	41
6	Villarreal	18	11	3	4	+17	36
7	Sociedad	18	10	4	4	+6	34
8	Las Palmas	18	9	6	3	+11	33
9	Eibar	18	10	3	5	+9	33
10	Malaga	18	10	2	6	+9	32
11	Espanol	19	8	5	6	+4	29
12	Alaves	19	7	8	4	-2	29
13	Valencia	18	8	4	6	+2	28
14	Celta	17	9	1	7	+1	28
15	Betis	18	6	6	6	-2	24
16	La Coruna	18	6	5	7	+1	23
17	Leganes	18	5	5	8	-1	20
18	Sp Gijon	18	5	3	10	-12	18
19	Granada	18	4	4	10	-14	16
20	Osasuna	19	2	7	10	-16	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	13	2	2	+32	41
2	Barcelona	18	12	3	3	+29	39
3	Ath Madrid	18	9	6	3	+17	33
4	Sociedad	18	9	1	8	+0	28
5	Villarreal	18	7	6	5	+4	27
6	Sevilla	18	7	5	6	+0	26
7	Alaves	18	7	4	7	+0	25
8	Espanol	18	6	6	6	-6	24
9	Eibar	18	5	6	7	-1	21
10	Ath Bilbao	18	6	2	10	-6	20
11	Valencia	19	5	3	11	-9	18
12	Celta	19	4	4	11	-14	16
13	Malaga	18	2	7	9	-13	13
14	Leganes	18	3	4	11	-18	13
15	Betis	18	4	1	13	-21	13
16	Sp Gijon	18	1	6	11	-19	9
17	La Coruna	18	1	6	11	-22	9
18	Osasuna	18	2	3	13	-33	9
19	Las Palmas	18	1	3	14	-26	6
20	Granada	19	0	4	15	-37	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.