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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Sp Lisbon

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Moreirense

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,5

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

0,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

42%

17%

Both score Ø 38%

42%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

66% Possession 34%

16 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

3 Corners 6

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Moreirense 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	10	3	0	+21	33
2	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+16	32
3	Benfica	12	9	0	3	+22	27
4	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+11	21
5	Rio Ave	13	6	3	4	+4	21
6	Pacos Ferreira	13	6	2	5	+4	20
7	Vitoria Setubal	13	4	6	3	+3	18
8	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	-4	17
9	Arouca	13	3	7	3	-1	16
10	Guimaraes	13	4	4	5	-5	16
11	Estoril	13	4	4	5	-5	16
12	Nacional	13	4	3	6	-1	15
13	Belenenses	12	3	4	5	-14	13
14	Moreirense	12	2	5	5	-6	11
15	Boavista	13	2	4	7	-8	10
16	U. Madeira	12	2	4	6	-11	10
17	Academica	12	1	4	7	-14	7
18	Tondela	12	1	2	9	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+16	18
3	Rio Ave	7	5	0	2	+4	15
4	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+11	13
5	Pacos Ferreira	7	4	1	2	+7	13
6	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
7	Estoril	6	3	3	0	+4	12
8	Nacional	6	3	2	1	+4	11
9	Belenenses	6	3	2	1	+1	11
10	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	+2	10
11	Guimaraes	7	2	2	3	+0	8
12	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	5	1	-1	8
13	Arouca	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	U. Madeira	6	2	2	2	-2	8
15	Moreirense	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Academica	6	1	2	3	-7	5
18	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Porto	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Vitoria Setubal	6	3	1	2	+4	10
4	Benfica	5	3	0	2	+6	9
5	Arouca	7	1	5	1	+0	8
6	Sp Braga	6	2	2	2	+0	8
7	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-5	8
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	1	3	-3	7
9	Maritimo	7	2	1	4	-6	7
10	Rio Ave	6	1	3	2	+0	6
11	Moreirense	6	1	2	3	-4	5
12	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-6	5
13	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-5	4
14	Estoril	7	1	1	5	-9	4
15	Academica	6	0	2	4	-7	2
16	U. Madeira	6	0	2	4	-9	2
17	Belenenses	6	0	2	4	-15	2
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.