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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Welz

Freiburg

U T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Fortuna Dusseldorf

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Fortuna Dusseldorf

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,2

4,7

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 31%

23%

39%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

55%

74%

Both score Ø 62%

65%

58%

Average goals

3,1

3,4

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

39% Possession 61%

10 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 14. · Fortuna Dusseldorf 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	23	5	4	+52	74
2	Dortmund	32	21	7	4	+34	70
3	RB Leipzig	32	19	8	5	+35	65
4	Ein Frankfurt	31	15	9	7	+23	54
5	M'gladbach	32	15	7	10	+11	52
6	Wolfsburg	32	15	7	10	+8	52
7	Hoffenheim	32	13	12	7	+21	51
8	Leverkusen	31	16	3	12	+8	51
9	Werder Bremen	32	12	11	9	+7	47
10	Hertha	32	10	10	12	-5	40
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	31	12	4	15	-16	40
12	Mainz	32	10	7	15	-15	37
13	Augsburg	32	8	8	16	-12	32
14	Freiburg	31	7	11	13	-16	32
15	Schalke 04	32	8	7	17	-18	31
16	Stuttgart	32	6	6	20	-41	24
17	Nurnberg	32	3	10	19	-34	19
18	Hannover	32	4	6	22	-42	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	16	13	2	1	+26	41
2	Bayern Munich	16	12	3	1	+31	39
3	RB Leipzig	16	10	5	1	+25	35
4	M'gladbach	16	9	3	4	+11	30
5	Ein Frankfurt	16	8	4	4	+13	28
6	Werder Bremen	16	7	6	3	+8	27
7	Hoffenheim	16	7	5	4	+9	26
8	Mainz	16	7	5	4	+7	26
9	Wolfsburg	16	7	5	4	+6	26
10	Leverkusen	15	8	1	6	+2	25
11	Hertha	16	6	6	4	+3	24
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	8	0	8	-2	24
13	Freiburg	15	5	6	4	+1	21
14	Augsburg	16	5	4	7	+2	19
15	Stuttgart	16	5	4	7	-8	19
16	Nurnberg	16	3	7	6	-2	16
17	Schalke 04	16	4	2	10	-12	14
18	Hannover	16	4	1	11	-14	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	11	2	3	+21	35
2	RB Leipzig	16	9	3	4	+10	30
3	Dortmund	16	8	5	3	+8	29
4	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	5	3	+10	26
5	Leverkusen	16	8	2	6	+6	26
6	Wolfsburg	16	8	2	6	+2	26
7	Hoffenheim	16	6	7	3	+12	25
8	M'gladbach	16	6	4	6	+0	22
9	Werder Bremen	16	5	5	6	-1	20
10	Schalke 04	16	4	5	7	-6	17
11	Hertha	16	4	4	8	-8	16
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	4	4	7	-14	16
13	Augsburg	16	3	4	9	-14	13
14	Freiburg	16	2	5	9	-17	11
15	Mainz	16	3	2	11	-22	11
16	Hannover	16	0	5	11	-28	5
17	Stuttgart	16	1	2	13	-33	5
18	Nurnberg	16	0	3	13	-32	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.