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Championship
Referee: Keith Stroud
Newcastle
S U T U S
1–0
Full-time
Burton Albion
U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Burton Albion
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,0
This season — Championship · 39/39 matches
Win Ø 46%
64%
28%
Points per game
2,1
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
54%
41%
Both score Ø 50%
46%
54%
Average goals
2,7
2,4
Scored
1,8
1,0
Conceded
0,8
1,4
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

70% Possession 30%
22 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 2
7 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 3
2 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Newcastle 2. · Burton Albion 19.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Brighton 40 25 8 7 +33 83
2 Newcastle 39 25 6 8 +39 81
3 Reading 37 21 7 9 +10 70
4 Leeds 40 21 6 13 +13 69
5 Huddersfield 35 21 5 9 +5 68
6 Fulham 38 16 13 9 +14 61
7 Preston 40 16 13 11 +11 61
8 Sheffield Weds 38 17 9 12 +8 60
9 Derby 40 16 11 13 +6 59
10 Norwich 39 16 9 14 +7 57
11 Aston Villa 40 15 12 13 +3 57
12 Brentford 40 16 8 16 +7 56
13 Barnsley 40 14 11 15 +0 53
14 Cardiff 40 14 10 16 -3 52
15 Wolves 39 14 9 16 +1 51
16 QPR 40 14 8 18 -7 50
17 Ipswich 40 11 16 13 -6 49
18 Birmingham 40 11 13 16 -18 46
19 Burton Albion 39 11 11 17 -13 44
20 Nott'm Forest 40 11 9 20 -12 42
21 Bristol City 40 11 8 21 -10 41
22 Blackburn 40 9 13 18 -14 40
23 Wigan 40 8 10 22 -17 34
24 Rotherham 40 4 5 31 -57 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Newcastle Burton Albion
Half-time 0–0
Jamaal Lascelles 🟨
50′
1–0 M. Ritchie
J. Shelvey
68′
70′
🔁 M. Kightly
↦ L. Christensen
80′
🔁 L. Dyer
↦ L. Akins
85′
🔁 C. Woodrow
↦ M. Sordell
Sammy Ameobi 🔁
↦ C. Atsu
89′
D. Murphy 🔁
↦ D. Gayle
91′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-4-1-1
26 K. Darlow G
6 J. Lascelles D
18 C. Mbemba D
3 P. Dummett D
8 V. Anita M
12 J. Shelvey M
15 M. Diamé M
11 M. Ritchie M
30 C. Atsu M
9 D. Gayle F
17 Ayoze Pérez F
Bench (7)
34 Sammy Ameobi
33 D. Murphy
5 G. Hanley
19 M. Haïdara
20 Y. Gouffran
21 R. Elliot
27 Jesús Gámez

Coach: Rafael Benítez

Burton Albion

5-3-2
1 J. McLaughlin G
6 B. Turner D
3 J. Brayford D
4 J. Mousinho D
2 T. Flanagan D
30 L. Murphy M
24 L. Christensen M
36 J. Irvine M
19 L. Varney F
10 L. Akins F
9 M. Sordell M
Bench (7)
28 M. Kightly
11 L. Dyer
12 C. Woodrow
5 K. McFadzean
13 S. Bywater
14 D. McCrory
15 T. Naylor

Coach: N. Clough

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Keith Stroud · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
19,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.