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Championship

Referee: Darren Bond

Aston Villa

U T U S S

3–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

This season — Championship · 34/36 matches

Win Ø 39%

35%

42%

Points per game

1,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

59%

28%

Both score Ø 55%

68%

42%

Average goals

3,2

1,9

Scored

1,7

1,1

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

60% Possession 40%

18 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 11. · Middlesbrough 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	37	22	9	6	+28	75
2	Sheffield United	38	22	8	8	+30	74
3	Leeds	36	20	7	9	+19	67
4	West Brom	35	17	9	9	+21	60
5	Middlesbrough	36	15	13	8	+12	58
6	Derby	34	15	11	8	+11	56
7	Bristol City	36	15	10	11	+7	55
8	Preston	37	14	12	11	+7	54
9	Nott'm Forest	37	13	14	10	+8	53
10	Sheffield Weds	37	13	13	11	-5	52
11	Aston Villa	34	12	14	8	+9	50
12	Birmingham	37	12	14	11	+5	50
13	Hull	37	14	8	15	-2	50
14	Brentford	36	13	10	13	+11	49
15	Swansea	36	13	8	15	-1	47
16	Blackburn	37	12	11	14	-6	47
17	Stoke	37	10	16	11	-5	46
18	QPR	37	12	7	18	-14	43
19	Millwall	37	9	10	18	-14	37
20	Reading	37	8	12	17	-16	36
21	Wigan	37	9	9	19	-19	36
22	Rotherham	37	7	15	15	-20	36
23	Bolton	37	7	8	22	-34	29
24	Ipswich	37	3	14	20	-32	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	19	13	3	3	+22	42
2	Norwich	19	13	2	4	+12	41
3	Brentford	18	11	3	4	+21	36
4	Leeds	18	11	3	4	+14	36
5	Derby	18	9	7	2	+10	34
6	Nott'm Forest	19	10	4	5	+9	34
7	Hull	18	9	4	5	+13	31
8	West Brom	18	8	6	4	+16	30
9	Blackburn	19	8	6	5	+8	30
10	Wigan	18	8	6	4	+3	30
11	Sheffield Weds	18	7	8	3	+3	29
12	Swansea	17	8	4	5	+6	28
13	Stoke	18	8	4	6	+2	28
14	Preston	18	6	9	3	+9	27
15	Middlesbrough	18	7	6	5	+5	27
16	Bristol City	19	7	6	6	+3	27
17	QPR	19	8	3	8	+1	27
18	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
19	Birmingham	19	6	8	5	+6	26
20	Rotherham	18	6	8	4	-2	26
21	Millwall	18	6	6	6	-2	24
22	Reading	19	6	4	9	-4	22
23	Bolton	19	4	4	11	-16	16
24	Ipswich	18	2	9	7	-7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	18	9	7	2	+16	34
2	Sheffield United	19	9	5	5	+8	32
3	Middlesbrough	18	8	7	3	+7	31
4	Leeds	18	9	4	5	+5	31
5	West Brom	17	9	3	5	+5	30
6	Bristol City	17	8	4	5	+4	28
7	Preston	19	8	3	8	-2	27
8	Aston Villa	18	6	6	6	+2	24
9	Birmingham	18	6	6	6	-1	24
10	Sheffield Weds	19	6	5	8	-8	23
11	Derby	16	6	4	6	+1	22
12	Nott'm Forest	18	3	10	5	-1	19
13	Swansea	19	5	4	10	-7	19
14	Hull	19	5	4	10	-15	19
15	Stoke	19	2	12	5	-7	18
16	Blackburn	18	4	5	9	-14	17
17	QPR	18	4	4	10	-15	16
18	Reading	18	2	8	8	-12	14
19	Brentford	18	2	7	9	-10	13
20	Millwall	19	3	4	12	-12	13
21	Bolton	18	3	4	11	-18	13
22	Rotherham	19	1	7	11	-18	10
23	Ipswich	19	1	5	13	-25	8
24	Wigan	19	1	3	15	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.