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Championship
Referee: James Linington
Aston Villa
S U T S U
2–2
Full-time
QPR
T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa QPR
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,2
2,5
Scored
2,3
1,5
Conceded
1,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
This season — Championship · 24/25 matches
Win Ø 41%
38%
44%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
58%
52%
Both score Ø 56%
71%
40%
Average goals
3,4
2,5
Scored
1,9
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

60% Possession 40%
22 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 4
7 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 1
1 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 21
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Aston Villa 9. · QPR 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Leeds 24 14 6 4 +15 48
2 Norwich 25 14 6 5 +14 48
3 West Brom 24 13 6 5 +21 45
4 Sheffield United 25 13 5 7 +14 44
5 Middlesbrough 25 11 9 5 +10 42
6 Derby 24 12 6 6 +9 42
7 Birmingham 25 9 11 5 +10 38
8 QPR 25 11 5 9 -1 38
9 Aston Villa 24 9 9 6 +9 36
10 Nott'm Forest 25 8 12 5 +8 36
11 Bristol City 25 9 8 8 +2 35
12 Stoke 25 8 11 6 +1 35
13 Swansea 25 9 6 10 +1 33
14 Hull 25 9 6 10 -3 33
15 Blackburn 25 7 10 8 -9 31
16 Sheffield Weds 25 8 7 10 -10 31
17 Preston 25 7 8 10 -4 29
18 Brentford 25 6 9 10 +0 27
19 Wigan 25 7 5 13 -12 26
20 Millwall 25 6 7 12 -9 25
21 Bolton 25 5 7 13 -15 22
22 Rotherham 25 4 10 11 -17 22
23 Reading 25 4 8 13 -10 20
24 Ipswich 25 2 9 14 -24 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Aston Villa QPR
1–0 T. Abraham
J. McGinn
21′
30′
🟨 Paweł Wszołek
41′
L. Freeman 1–1
N. Wells
Conor Hourihane 🟨
45′
Half-time 1–1
Jonathan Kodjia 🟨
49′
57′
E. Eze 1–2
P. Wszołek
Y. Bolasie 🔁
↦ A. Adomah
61′
A. El Ghazi 🔁
↦ J. Kodjia
61′
69′
🟨 Toni Leistner
71′
🔁 M. Smith
↦ N. Wells
2–2 T. Abraham
A. El Ghazi
75′
77′
🔁 B. Osayi-Samuel
↦ P. Wszołek
90′
🟨 Jake Bidwell
90′
🟨 Joe Lumley
90′
🟨 Bright Osayi-Samuel
G. Whelan 🔁
↦ C. Hourihane
91′
97′
🔁 G. Hall
↦ E. Eze
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-3-3
12 J. Steer G
21 A. Hutton D
24 T. Elphick D
5 J. Chester D
16 J. Bree D
20 B. Bjarnason M
37 A. Adomah M
14 C. Hourihane M
7 J. McGinn M
26 J. Kodjia F
18 T. Abraham F
Bench (7)
11 Y. Bolasie
22 A. El Ghazi
6 G. Whelan
17 K. Davis
31 M. Bunn
9 S. Hogan
27 Ahmed El Mohamady

Coach: K. MacDonald

QPR

4-4-1-1
13 J. Lumley G
33 J. Lynch D
3 J. Bidwell D
37 T. Leistner D
2 D. Furlong D
23 P. Wszołek M
8 J. Cousins M
11 J. Scowen M
10 E. Eze F
7 L. Freeman M
32 N. Wells F
Bench (7)
17 M. Smith
20 B. Osayi-Samuel
4 G. Hall
18 A. Oteh
14 R. Manning
19 I. Chair
1 M. Ingram

Coach: S. McClaren

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

James Linington · 107 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.