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Championship

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Brighton

S S S T S

1–0

Full-time

Cardiff

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

This season — Championship · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 50%

65%

35%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

46%

54%

Both score Ø 47%

35%

58%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

18 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 2. · Cardiff 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	27	19	1	7	+33	58
2	Brighton	26	17	6	3	+24	57
3	Huddersfield	25	15	4	6	+5	49
4	Leeds	27	15	3	9	+10	48
5	Reading	25	14	4	7	+7	46
6	Derby	27	12	7	8	+6	43
7	Barnsley	27	12	5	10	+5	41
8	Norwich	27	12	4	11	+5	40
9	Preston	27	11	7	9	+3	40
10	Sheffield Weds	25	11	6	8	+2	39
11	Fulham	25	9	10	6	+8	37
12	Birmingham	27	9	10	8	-5	37
13	Aston Villa	27	8	12	7	+1	36
14	Ipswich	27	9	7	11	-5	34
15	Brentford	27	9	6	12	-1	33
16	Cardiff	26	9	6	11	-9	33
17	QPR	27	9	6	12	-11	33
18	Wolves	27	8	8	11	-3	32
19	Nott'm Forest	27	8	6	13	-7	30
20	Bristol City	27	8	3	16	-4	27
21	Wigan	27	6	7	14	-8	25
22	Burton Albion	27	6	7	14	-11	25
23	Blackburn	27	6	7	14	-12	25
24	Rotherham	27	4	4	19	-33	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	13	10	2	1	+20	32
2	Leeds	14	9	2	3	+10	29
3	Huddersfield	12	9	2	1	+9	29
4	Norwich	13	9	1	3	+15	28
5	Newcastle	13	9	0	4	+17	27
6	Reading	13	8	3	2	+10	27
7	Aston Villa	13	6	7	0	+9	25
8	Derby	14	7	4	3	+8	25
9	Sheffield Weds	12	8	1	3	+5	25
10	Ipswich	14	6	5	3	+5	23
11	Barnsley	14	6	4	4	+3	22
12	Birmingham	14	6	4	4	+1	22
13	Preston	14	6	3	5	+4	21
14	Nott'm Forest	13	6	3	4	+3	21
15	Cardiff	14	6	2	6	-3	20
16	Brentford	13	5	4	4	+6	19
17	Bristol City	13	6	1	6	+1	19
18	Fulham	13	4	5	4	+2	17
19	Burton Albion	13	5	2	6	+1	17
20	Blackburn	14	4	5	5	-2	17
21	QPR	14	4	4	6	-7	16
22	Rotherham	13	4	3	6	-3	15
23	Wolves	13	4	3	6	-4	15
24	Wigan	13	3	3	7	-5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	14	10	1	3	+16	31
2	Brighton	13	7	4	2	+4	25
3	Fulham	12	5	5	2	+6	20
4	Huddersfield	13	6	2	5	-4	20
5	Barnsley	13	6	1	6	+2	19
6	Leeds	13	6	1	6	+0	19
7	Preston	13	5	4	4	-1	19
8	Reading	12	6	1	5	-3	19
9	Derby	13	5	3	5	-2	18
10	Wolves	14	4	5	5	+1	17
11	QPR	13	5	2	6	-4	17
12	Birmingham	13	3	6	4	-6	15
13	Sheffield Weds	13	3	5	5	-3	14
14	Brentford	14	4	2	8	-7	14
15	Wigan	14	3	4	7	-3	13
16	Cardiff	12	3	4	5	-6	13
17	Norwich	14	3	3	8	-10	12
18	Aston Villa	14	2	5	7	-8	11
19	Ipswich	13	3	2	8	-10	11
20	Nott'm Forest	14	2	3	9	-10	9
21	Bristol City	14	2	2	10	-5	8
22	Blackburn	13	2	2	9	-10	8
23	Burton Albion	14	1	5	8	-12	8
24	Rotherham	14	0	1	13	-30	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.