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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Cardiff

U U S T U

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,7

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Championship · 23/24 matches

Win Ø 30%

26%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

57%

29%

Both score Ø 60%

61%

58%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%

20 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 9

1 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 21. · Aston Villa 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	24	17	1	6	+29	52
2	Brighton	23	15	6	2	+24	51
3	Reading	22	13	4	5	+8	43
4	Huddersfield	23	13	4	6	+2	43
5	Leeds	24	13	3	8	+7	42
6	Derby	24	11	7	6	+9	40
7	Sheffield Weds	23	11	5	7	+3	38
8	Barnsley	24	10	5	9	+5	35
9	Aston Villa	24	8	11	5	+3	35
10	Birmingham	24	9	8	7	-3	35
11	Norwich	24	10	4	10	+1	34
12	Fulham	22	8	9	5	+7	33
13	Preston	24	9	6	9	+0	33
14	Ipswich	24	8	7	9	-3	31
15	Brentford	24	8	6	10	-1	30
16	Wolves	24	7	7	10	-2	28
17	Bristol City	24	8	3	13	-1	27
18	Nott'm Forest	24	7	5	12	-7	26
19	QPR	24	7	5	12	-13	26
20	Burton Albion	24	6	7	11	-7	25
21	Cardiff	23	6	6	11	-12	24
22	Blackburn	24	5	6	13	-12	21
23	Wigan	24	4	7	13	-10	19
24	Rotherham	24	3	4	17	-27	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	12	9	2	1	+19	29
2	Reading	12	8	3	1	+11	27
3	Huddersfield	11	8	2	1	+7	26
4	Newcastle	12	8	0	4	+13	24
5	Aston Villa	12	6	6	0	+9	24
6	Sheffield Weds	11	8	0	3	+5	24
7	Leeds	12	7	2	3	+6	23
8	Norwich	11	7	1	3	+10	22
9	Derby	13	6	4	3	+7	22
10	Birmingham	12	6	3	3	+3	21
11	Ipswich	13	5	5	3	+4	20
12	Brentford	12	5	4	3	+7	19
13	Bristol City	11	6	1	4	+3	19
14	Barnsley	13	5	4	4	+2	19
15	Nott'm Forest	11	5	3	3	+3	18
16	Preston	13	5	3	5	+2	18
17	Burton Albion	11	5	2	4	+4	17
18	Fulham	11	3	5	3	+1	14
19	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-5	14
20	Blackburn	12	3	4	5	-3	13
21	Rotherham	12	3	3	6	-4	12
22	Wolves	12	3	3	6	-5	12
23	QPR	12	3	3	6	-8	12
24	Wigan	11	2	3	6	-5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	12	9	1	2	+16	28
2	Brighton	11	6	4	1	+5	22
3	Fulham	11	5	4	2	+6	19
4	Leeds	12	6	1	5	+1	19
5	Derby	11	5	3	3	+2	18
6	Huddersfield	12	5	2	5	-5	17
7	Barnsley	11	5	1	5	+3	16
8	Wolves	12	4	4	4	+3	16
9	Reading	10	5	1	4	-3	16
10	Preston	11	4	3	4	-2	15
11	Sheffield Weds	12	3	5	4	-2	14
12	QPR	12	4	2	6	-5	14
13	Birmingham	12	3	5	4	-6	14
14	Norwich	13	3	3	7	-9	12
15	Aston Villa	12	2	5	5	-6	11
16	Ipswich	11	3	2	6	-7	11
17	Brentford	12	3	2	7	-8	11
18	Wigan	13	2	4	7	-5	10
19	Cardiff	11	2	4	5	-7	10
20	Bristol City	13	2	2	9	-4	8
21	Blackburn	12	2	2	8	-9	8
22	Nott'm Forest	13	2	2	9	-10	8
23	Burton Albion	13	1	5	7	-11	8
24	Rotherham	12	0	1	11	-23	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.