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Premier League

Referee: Roger East

Chelsea

T S U T T

3–1

Full-time

Sunderland

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Sunderland

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 22%

25%

19%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

63%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

67% Possession 33%

17 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 2

0 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 16. · Sunderland 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	16	10	5	1	+12	35
2	Arsenal	16	10	3	3	+16	33
3	Man City	16	10	2	4	+15	32
4	Man United	16	8	5	3	+9	29
5	Tottenham	16	6	8	2	+12	26
6	Crystal Palace	16	8	2	6	+6	26
7	Watford	16	7	4	5	+2	25
8	West Ham	16	6	6	4	+4	24
9	Liverpool	16	6	6	4	+1	24
10	Everton	16	5	8	3	+8	23
11	Stoke	16	6	5	5	-1	23
12	Southampton	16	5	6	5	+2	21
13	West Brom	16	5	5	6	-5	20
14	Bournemouth	16	4	4	8	-11	16
15	Newcastle	16	4	4	8	-13	16
16	Chelsea	16	4	3	9	-8	15
17	Swansea	16	3	5	8	-9	14
18	Norwich	16	3	5	8	-10	14
19	Sunderland	16	3	3	10	-13	12
20	Aston Villa	16	1	3	12	-17	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	0	2	+14	21
2	Leicester	8	5	2	1	+3	17
3	Tottenham	9	4	4	1	+8	16
4	Man United	7	4	3	0	+8	15
5	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
6	Crystal Palace	9	4	1	4	+3	13
7	Everton	8	3	3	2	+5	12
8	Liverpool	8	3	3	2	-1	12
9	Southampton	8	3	2	3	+2	11
10	Watford	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	West Ham	8	2	4	2	+1	10
12	Stoke	7	3	1	3	+0	10
13	Chelsea	8	3	1	4	-1	10
14	Newcastle	8	2	3	3	+1	9
15	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-3	9
17	Swansea	8	2	3	3	-4	9
18	Sunderland	8	2	2	4	+0	8
19	West Brom	8	2	2	4	-4	8
20	Aston Villa	8	0	2	6	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	9	6	1	2	+10	19
2	Leicester	8	5	3	0	+9	18
3	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+3	14
4	Watford	8	4	2	2	+2	14
5	Man United	9	4	2	3	+1	14
6	Crystal Palace	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Stoke	9	3	4	2	-1	13
8	Liverpool	8	3	3	2	+2	12
9	West Brom	8	3	3	2	-1	12
10	Everton	8	2	5	1	+3	11
11	Man City	7	3	2	2	+1	11
12	Tottenham	7	2	4	1	+4	10
13	Southampton	8	2	4	2	+0	10
14	Bournemouth	8	2	1	5	-8	7
15	Newcastle	8	2	1	5	-14	7
16	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-5	5
17	Chelsea	8	1	2	5	-7	5
18	Norwich	8	1	2	5	-9	5
19	Aston Villa	8	1	1	6	-10	4
20	Sunderland	8	1	1	6	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.