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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Man City

T S S S U

3–1

Full-time

Brighton

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,0

Scored

2,8

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 54%

83%

25%

Points per game

2,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

72%

31%

Both score Ø 48%

53%

42%

Average goals

3,6

2,2

Scored

2,8

0,9

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

73% Possession 27%

19 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Brighton 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	36	30	4	2	+76	94
2	Man United	36	24	5	7	+39	77
3	Liverpool	37	20	12	5	+42	72
4	Tottenham	36	21	8	7	+36	71
5	Chelsea	37	21	7	9	+27	70
6	Arsenal	37	18	6	13	+22	60
7	Burnley	37	14	12	11	-2	54
8	Everton	37	13	10	14	-12	49
9	Leicester	37	12	11	14	-3	47
10	Newcastle	36	11	8	17	-10	41
11	Crystal Palace	37	10	11	16	-12	41
12	Bournemouth	37	10	11	16	-17	41
13	Watford	37	11	8	18	-19	41
14	Brighton	36	9	13	14	-14	40
15	West Ham	36	9	11	16	-22	38
16	Huddersfield	37	9	10	18	-29	37
17	Southampton	37	7	15	15	-18	36
18	Swansea	37	8	9	20	-27	33
19	West Brom	37	6	13	18	-23	31
20	Stoke	37	6	12	19	-34	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	15	2	1	+45	47
2	Arsenal	19	15	2	2	+34	47
3	Man United	18	14	2	2	+28	44
4	Liverpool	18	11	7	0	+31	40
5	Tottenham	17	11	4	2	+22	37
6	Chelsea	19	11	4	4	+14	37
7	Everton	19	10	4	5	+6	34
8	Brighton	19	7	8	4	-1	29
9	Leicester	19	7	6	6	+3	27
10	Watford	19	7	6	6	-4	27
11	Burnley	18	7	5	6	+0	26
12	Bournemouth	19	7	5	7	-4	26
13	Newcastle	18	7	4	7	+1	25
14	Crystal Palace	18	6	5	7	+0	23
15	West Ham	17	6	5	6	-4	23
16	Huddersfield	18	6	5	7	-8	23
17	Swansea	18	6	3	9	-6	21
18	Stoke	19	5	5	9	-10	20
19	Southampton	18	4	7	7	-5	19
20	West Brom	19	3	9	7	-8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	15	2	1	+31	47
2	Tottenham	19	10	4	5	+14	34
3	Chelsea	18	10	3	5	+13	33
4	Man United	18	10	3	5	+11	33
5	Liverpool	19	9	5	5	+11	32
6	Burnley	19	7	7	5	-2	28
7	Leicester	18	5	5	8	-6	20
8	Crystal Palace	19	4	6	9	-12	18
9	Southampton	19	3	8	8	-13	17
10	Newcastle	18	4	4	10	-11	16
11	Bournemouth	18	3	6	9	-13	15
12	West Ham	19	3	6	10	-18	15
13	Everton	18	3	6	9	-18	15
14	Watford	18	4	2	12	-15	14
15	Huddersfield	19	3	5	11	-21	14
16	Arsenal	18	3	4	11	-12	13
17	West Brom	18	3	4	11	-15	13
18	Swansea	19	2	6	11	-21	12
19	Brighton	17	2	5	10	-13	11
20	Stoke	18	1	7	10	-24	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.