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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Newcastle

S U T T S

3–1

Full-time

Southampton

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 34/33 matches

Win Ø 28%

29%

27%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

44%

61%

Both score Ø 54%

44%

64%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

43% Possession 57%

15 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 11

0 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 15. · Southampton 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	34	28	2	4	+65	86
2	Liverpool	34	26	7	1	+57	85
3	Tottenham	34	22	1	11	+29	67
4	Arsenal	33	20	6	7	+26	66
5	Chelsea	34	20	6	8	+21	66
6	Man United	33	19	7	7	+19	64
7	Watford	34	14	7	13	+0	49
8	Leicester	35	14	6	15	+1	48
9	Wolves	34	13	9	12	-1	48
10	Everton	34	13	7	14	+2	46
11	West Ham	35	12	7	16	-10	43
12	Bournemouth	35	12	5	18	-13	41
13	Crystal Palace	34	11	6	17	-6	39
14	Burnley	34	11	6	17	-18	39
15	Newcastle	34	10	8	16	-11	38
16	Southampton	33	9	9	15	-15	36
17	Brighton	34	9	7	18	-21	34
18	Cardiff	34	9	4	21	-33	31
19	Fulham	35	6	5	24	-43	23
20	Huddersfield	35	3	5	27	-49	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	17	0	1	+44	51
2	Liverpool	17	15	2	0	+38	47
3	Arsenal	17	14	2	1	+27	44
4	Chelsea	17	11	5	1	+24	38
5	Man United	16	10	5	1	+12	35
6	Tottenham	16	11	1	4	+18	34
7	Wolves	17	8	4	5	+4	28
8	Everton	17	8	4	5	+3	28
9	West Ham	18	8	4	6	+2	28
10	Bournemouth	18	7	5	6	+4	26
11	Watford	16	8	2	6	+2	26
12	Leicester	17	7	2	8	+1	23
13	Burnley	17	7	2	8	-5	23
14	Newcastle	17	7	1	9	-2	22
15	Brighton	17	6	4	7	-6	22
16	Southampton	17	5	6	6	-3	21
17	Cardiff	17	6	2	9	-14	20
18	Fulham	17	5	3	9	-11	18
19	Crystal Palace	17	4	4	9	-6	16
20	Huddersfield	18	2	2	14	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	11	5	1	+19	38
2	Man City	16	11	2	3	+21	35
3	Tottenham	18	11	0	7	+11	33
4	Man United	17	9	2	6	+7	29
5	Chelsea	17	9	1	7	-3	28
6	Leicester	18	7	4	7	+0	25
7	Crystal Palace	17	7	2	8	+0	23
8	Watford	18	6	5	7	-2	23
9	Arsenal	16	6	4	6	-1	22
10	Wolves	17	5	5	7	-5	20
11	Everton	17	5	3	9	-1	18
12	Newcastle	17	3	7	7	-9	16
13	Burnley	17	4	4	9	-13	16
14	Southampton	16	4	3	9	-12	15
15	West Ham	17	4	3	10	-12	15
16	Bournemouth	17	5	0	12	-17	15
17	Brighton	17	3	3	11	-15	12
18	Cardiff	17	3	2	12	-19	11
19	Huddersfield	17	1	3	13	-28	6
20	Fulham	18	1	2	15	-32	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.