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Premier League
Referee: Stuart Attwell
Burnley
T T U T T
1–3
Full-time
Liverpool
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Liverpool
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
0%
83%
Points per game
0,2
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,3
2,3
Scored
0,5
2,0
Conceded
2,8
0,3
Goal diff per game
-2,3
+1,7
This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 47%
14%
79%
Points per game
0,6
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
57%
43%
Both score Ø 40%
43%
36%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
0,9
1,9
Conceded
2,1
0,4
Goal diff per game
-1,1
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

25% Possession 75%
10 Shots 18
6 Shots on target 12
1 Blocked shots 4
8 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 9
6 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 3
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Burnley 19. · Liverpool 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 15 13 2 0 +38 41
2 Liverpool 14 11 3 0 +22 36
3 Chelsea 14 9 4 1 +19 31
4 Arsenal 14 9 3 2 +14 30
5 Tottenham 14 10 0 4 +10 30
6 Bournemouth 15 7 2 6 +3 23
7 Everton 14 6 4 4 +4 22
8 Man United 14 6 4 4 -1 22
9 Leicester 14 6 3 5 +3 21
10 Brighton 15 6 3 6 -2 21
11 Watford 15 6 2 7 -3 20
12 West Ham 15 5 3 7 -3 18
13 Wolves 14 4 4 6 -4 16
14 Newcastle 14 3 3 8 -8 12
15 Crystal Palace 15 3 3 9 -9 12
16 Cardiff 15 3 2 10 -16 11
17 Huddersfield 15 2 4 9 -16 10
18 Southampton 14 1 6 7 -14 9
19 Burnley 14 2 3 9 -16 9
20 Fulham 14 2 2 10 -21 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Burnley Liverpool
23′
🔁 T. Alexander-Arnold
↦ J. Gomez
Half-time 1–0
1–0 J. Cork
54′
62′
J. Milner 1–1
D. Origi
65′
🔁 Mohamed Salah
↦ Alberto Moreno
66′
🔁 Roberto Firmino
↦ D. Origi
69′
Roberto Firmino 1–2
V. van Dijk
S. Vokes 🔁
↦ C. Wood
71′
A. Lennon 🔁
↦ R. Brady
71′
M. Vydra 🔁
↦ A. Barnes
83′
Matěj Vydra 🟨
86′
91′
X. Shaqiri 1–3
Mohamed Salah
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Burnley

4-4-2
20 J. Hart G
26 P. Bardsley D
6 B. Mee D
5 J. Tarkowski D
3 C. Taylor D
4 J. Cork M
7 J. Guðmunds­son M
18 A. Westwood M
12 R. Brady M
10 A. Barnes F
11 C. Wood F
Bench (7)
9 S. Vokes
25 A. Lennon
27 M. Vydra
1 T. Heaton
2 M. Lowton
13 J. Hendrick
28 K. Long

Coach: S. Dyche

Liverpool

4-4-2
13 Alisson G
32 J. Matip D
4 V. van Dijk D
18 Alberto Moreno D
12 J. Gomez D
7 J. Milner M
14 J. Henderson M
8 N. Keïta M
15 D. Sturridge F
23 X. Shaqiri M
27 D. Origi F
Bench (7)
66 T. Alexander-Arnold
11 Mohamed Salah
9 Roberto Firmino
3 Fabinho
20 A. Lallana
22 S. Mignolet
64 Rafael Camacho

Coach: J. Klopp

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Stuart Attwell · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.