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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Man United

S S T U U

2–2

Full-time

Arsenal

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 54%

43%

64%

Points per game

1,6

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

79%

64%

Both score Ø 79%

79%

Average goals

3,2

3,6

Scored

1,6

2,3

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

44% Possession 56%

10 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 9. · Arsenal 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	13	2	0	+38	41
2	Liverpool	15	12	3	0	+24	39
3	Chelsea	15	9	4	2	+18	31
4	Arsenal	14	9	3	2	+14	30
5	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+10	30
6	Everton	15	6	5	4	+4	23
7	Bournemouth	15	7	2	6	+3	23
8	Leicester	15	6	4	5	+3	22
9	Man United	14	6	4	4	-1	22
10	Brighton	15	6	3	6	-2	21
11	Watford	15	6	2	7	-3	20
12	Wolves	15	5	4	6	-3	19
13	West Ham	15	5	3	7	-3	18
14	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-8	13
15	Crystal Palace	15	3	3	9	-9	12
16	Cardiff	15	3	2	10	-16	11
17	Huddersfield	15	2	4	9	-16	10
18	Southampton	14	1	6	7	-14	9
19	Burnley	15	2	3	10	-18	9
20	Fulham	15	2	3	10	-21	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	8	0	0	+25	24
2	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+14	19
3	Chelsea	8	5	3	0	+10	18
4	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+8	17
5	Everton	8	5	2	1	+7	17
6	Bournemouth	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Brighton	7	4	2	1	+4	14
8	Watford	8	4	0	4	-2	12
9	Leicester	7	3	2	2	+4	11
10	Man United	6	3	2	1	+0	11
11	Wolves	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	West Ham	8	3	1	4	-1	10
13	Cardiff	8	3	1	4	-4	10
14	Tottenham	5	3	0	2	+3	9
15	Fulham	7	2	2	3	-6	8
16	Newcastle	8	2	0	6	-7	6
17	Southampton	7	0	5	2	-4	5
18	Crystal Palace	7	1	2	4	-4	5
19	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	-7	5
20	Burnley	7	1	1	5	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	9	7	0	2	+7	21
2	Liverpool	8	6	2	0	+10	20
3	Man City	7	5	2	0	+13	17
4	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	+8	13
5	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+6	13
6	Man United	8	3	2	3	-1	11
7	Leicester	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Bournemouth	7	3	0	4	-1	9
9	Watford	7	2	2	3	-1	8
10	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Newcastle	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Crystal Palace	8	2	1	5	-5	7
14	Brighton	8	2	1	5	-6	7
15	Everton	7	1	3	3	-3	6
16	Huddersfield	7	1	2	4	-9	5
17	Burnley	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Southampton	7	1	1	5	-10	4
19	Cardiff	7	0	1	6	-12	1
20	Fulham	8	0	1	7	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.