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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Watford

S S S U T

1–2

Full-time

Man City

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 50%

42%

58%

Points per game

1,5

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

47%

63%

Both score Ø 48%

42%

53%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,9

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 9. · Man City 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	20	13	3	4	+16	42
2	Leicester	20	11	7	2	+12	40
3	Man City	19	11	3	5	+17	36
4	Tottenham	19	9	8	2	+18	35
5	Man United	20	9	6	5	+7	33
6	West Ham	20	8	8	4	+7	32
7	Crystal Palace	19	9	4	6	+7	31
8	Liverpool	20	8	6	6	-2	30
9	Watford	19	8	5	6	+4	29
10	Stoke	20	8	5	7	+0	29
11	Everton	19	6	8	5	+7	26
12	West Brom	20	7	5	8	-5	26
13	Southampton	20	6	6	8	+2	24
14	Norwich	20	6	5	9	-9	23
15	Bournemouth	20	5	6	9	-12	21
16	Chelsea	19	5	5	9	-6	20
17	Swansea	20	4	7	9	-9	19
18	Newcastle	20	4	5	11	-16	17
19	Sunderland	20	4	3	13	-17	15
20	Aston Villa	20	1	5	14	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	0	2	+17	24
2	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+10	23
3	Tottenham	10	5	4	1	+11	19
4	Man United	10	5	4	1	+8	19
5	Leicester	10	5	4	1	+3	19
6	West Ham	10	4	4	2	+4	16
7	Norwich	10	4	3	3	+2	15
8	Liverpool	9	4	3	2	+0	15
9	Southampton	10	4	2	4	+4	14
10	Crystal Palace	10	4	2	4	+3	14
11	Watford	10	4	2	4	+2	14
12	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+1	14
13	West Brom	11	4	2	5	-3	14
14	Stoke	9	4	1	4	+1	13
15	Swansea	10	3	4	3	-3	13
16	Everton	10	3	3	4	+3	12
17	Sunderland	10	3	2	5	+1	11
18	Newcastle	10	2	4	4	+0	10
19	Bournemouth	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Aston Villa	9	0	3	6	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	10	6	3	1	+9	21
2	Arsenal	10	6	1	3	+6	19
3	Crystal Palace	9	5	2	2	+4	17
4	Tottenham	9	4	4	1	+7	16
5	West Ham	10	4	4	2	+3	16
6	Stoke	11	4	4	3	-1	16
7	Watford	9	4	3	2	+2	15
8	Liverpool	11	4	3	4	-2	15
9	Everton	9	3	5	1	+4	14
10	Man United	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Man City	9	3	3	3	+0	12
12	West Brom	9	3	3	3	-2	12
13	Bournemouth	11	3	2	6	-9	11
14	Southampton	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	Norwich	10	2	2	6	-11	8
16	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-16	7
17	Swansea	10	1	3	6	-6	6
18	Chelsea	9	1	3	5	-7	6
19	Aston Villa	11	1	2	8	-14	5
20	Sunderland	10	1	1	8	-18	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.